The shine on Andy Burnham’s reputation as a progressive willing to co-operate with other parties to transform our politics in the UK continues to become more tarnished. His latest U-turn is to shy away from his proposal that limits should be placed on the amounts individuals can contribute to their preferred political parties.
For years it has been a commonplace that political office in the US, including the Presidency, is “up for sale.” Advertising and other expenditure on campaigns at all levels in the US far exceeds anything contemplated in the UK. But we are moving in that direction.
Expenditure on general election campaigns has been very disproportionate since the war, with the Tories , funded by big business, at the top, followed by Labour, funded largely by the trade Unions, and the Liberals and (and now the Greens) trailing at the bottom, now outspent by Reform. (Who or what funds them?)
The situation is rapidly worsening, with rich individuals, not all of them resident in this country deliberately trying to influence our politics.
In this situation I find the limit per individual of £5,000 formerly proposed by Mr Burnham, absurdly high, even if its meant to be for a lifetime rather than per year. (I don’t know which.) I would suggest a limit of £500 per year per individual or corporate entity to be far more appropriate. That would still leave the parties unduly beholden the “comfortably off” rather than those struggling to make ends meet.
Be that as it may, the situation is urgent and limits of some sort should be introduced to restrict the sale of political influence in the UK now, before the next general election.
Years ago a professor whose name escapes me proposed in the now defunct “Liberal News” the following method of financing our political parties.
1. Parliament would decide at regular intervals the total amount necessary periodically for the funding of our democracy.
2. 2. This amount would then be divided by the total number of people on the electoral registers. Let’s say, for simplicity’s sake, that it is £20.
3. 3. Vouchers for £20 would then be issued periodically to all eligible voters.
4. 4. The vouchers could only be cashed by a registered political party.
It was expected that the system would operate in this way:
1. 1. Party members and political nerds would promptly send their voucher to the HQ of their favoured party.
2. 2. Party canvassers would be incentivised to knock on doors and try to persuade the voucher holders of the merits of the party and hand over the voucher to send to their HQ (or ask the voter to do it themselves, having provided the address.) The alienated would be free to thrwo the voucher away if they wished.
3. 3. Other financial contributions to political parties would either be strictly limited or forbidden.
Such a system would encourage a closer examination of the policies of the parties on a regular basis rather than the present concentration of sloganising at election time.
Above all, it would be fairer.
I’ve mentioned before that my very first lecturer in what as then called “British Constitution “ at A level, a Mr Chekanovski (that spelling may be incorrect: it was a long time ago) cited “the British tradition of fair play” as one of the pillars of our system.
Come on Mr Burnham - fair play!
As you might expect, I would object to your proposal on several grounds:
ReplyDelete1. I am not a member of any political party specifically because I do not want to give my money to any of them, and I don’t see why I should be forced to. So I should be able to cash the voucher myself, if I don’t want to give it to any party. I should not be forced to either spend my money on something I don’t want, or throw my own money away.
2. Contrariwise, if I did support a political party, I don’t see why I should be limited to giving them £20. It’s my money; I should be free to spend it how I wish, whether that is on luxuries for myself, giving it to charity, or funding a political party to make the country more like I think it should be.
3. If the vouchers are given to everyone on the electoral register, that means they will be given to people who are not net taxpayers. That means, as a net taxpayer, some of my money will be being given to other people, who may then give it to political parties I disagree with. That means that under your system I am being forced to fund with my money parties I disagree with. This is totally unacceptable.
Peter
Deleteyou raise an important – but challenging - question about party funding.
The current system lacks transparency and is open to to potential influence, abuse and corruption – those contributing expecting a tangible payback in one form or another – access to the corridors of power, new contracts, peerages etc
It's also clear that with the changing landscape of political marketing there's no simple alternative (in spite of what Chekanovski said!)
You can leave it to donations – individuals, company-based, trade union-based – as is currently the case with rules to try to make the source of donations as transparent as possible.
You can make it entirely state funded where parties get their campaigning funding from public funds
Or you can have some sort of hybrid system which is what the UK currently has in some form or other
None are ideal with advantages and disadvantages of each.
There are a couple of other issues
One relates to the existing problem of visible media support for particular parties (or issues). This is not paid for by the political party concerned but clearly may have a major influence of voter behaviour.
We saw this in Scotland with the Indy referendum in 2014 where all the national newspapers took an anti-Indy stance and of course they all happen to be owned and run by non-Scots!
The second issue that's an increasing trend is the impact of social/digital media supported by AI
Again this may occur without any direct expenditure from any one political party but arguably can have a major influence on both public opinion and voting intention
Some info that I managed to dig out:
Party funding 2001-2026
Conservative and Unionist Party £632.4m
Labour Party £529.9m
Liberal Democrats £164.7m
Reform UK £51.8m (since 2019 only)
Scottish National Party (SNP) £31.8m
Source of funding
Individuals 43%
Companies 17%
Trade unions 16%
with a further 17% coming from “public funds”
And then there's the donations made to individual MPs – which is seperate from those to their party. From their required Declared Interests:
Badenoch c. £400,000 (2025/26)
Starmer c. £11,000 (2024-2026)
Davey c. £52,000 (2024-2026)
Burnham c. £360,000 (2026)
Farage £1.4 million (2024-26)
Democracy has to be funded, and funded fairly. Otherewise it becomes the tool of the super-rich, distorted to act in their interest.
ReplyDeleteDemocracy is working perfectly well you just get annoyed when it doesn’t give the results you want because you can’t accept that your positions are unpopular and people vote against them because they don’t want them, so you have to make believe that the public are gullible idiots who can be brainwashed.
DeleteIt’s just the old Marxist ‘false consciousness’ nonsense, updated for a technological age.
In reality: people vote for what they want, not how they are told. But what they want is not what you think they should want. Suck it up.
Like Tony Benn, I prefer to be a signpost rather than a weathercock. The media, largely owned by the rich, point one way: I point another.
DeleteThe media, largely owned by the rich, point one way: I point another.
DeleteFair enough; but if people, having given the matter due consideration, prefer to go the way the media points, will you respect that as their sovereign decision?
Of course, but I shall continue to campaign for a fairer representation of views.
DeleteOf course, but I shall continue to campaign for a fairer representation of views.
DeleteOf course you can continue to campaign. But you have to accept that people can legitimately disagree with you without having been manipulated by the media, or by money. Do you accept that?
Of course
DeleteOf course
DeleteThen why, if you accept that people vote according to their own wills and aren’t brainwashed by the media and money, do you write about party financing?
Oh
DeleteYou start " people can legitimately disagree with you without having been manipulated by the media, or by money"
Peter comments that he accepts this is possible
Your statement uses the word "can" rather than "do" implying only that it's possible.
You use the word "people" implying that some "can" do this but not suggesting that all "can"
You then go on to say:
"Then why, if you accept that people vote according to their own wills and aren’t brainwashed by the media and money, do you write about party financing?dear, poor logic I'm afraid."
moving on - incorrectly - to a false assumption that ALL people "vote according to their wills"
I'm afraid that it's your logic that needs improving
Just because SOME people may vote uninfluenced by the media you CANNOT conclude that ALL people are uninfluenced.
Just because SOME people may vote uninfluenced by the media you CANNOT conclude that ALL people are uninfluenced.
DeleteWell obviously we know that you can’t think for yourself and just vote the way your groupthink bubble tells you to.
But most people are not as easily influenced as you.
I'm always amused when personal name calling starts as it signifies that you're unable to refute the argument.
Delete"Well obviously we know that you can’t think for yourself and just vote the way your groupthink bubble tells you to.
But most people are not as easily influenced as you."
QED
For years it has been a commonplace that political office in the US, including the Presidency, is “up for sale.”
ReplyDeleteIt may be a ‘commonplace’ but is it actually true that the presidency is always won by the candidate who spends the most money?
Or is it one of those bits of received wisdom that turns out not to be correct at all?
If it is produce the evidence.
ReplyDeleteof the 12 US presidential elections since 1980 (when spending started to be recorded more robustly) 9 were won by the candidate spending most
Deleteof the 12 US presidential elections since 1980 (when spending started to be recorded more robustly) 9 were won by the candidate spending most
DeleteOkay, so we definitely know the Presidency is not 'up for sale' in the sense that the higher-spending candidate always wins.
But, another question is: is that statistically significant?
Well, assuming that it's false that the Presidency is 'up for sale' we would expect the higher-spending candidate to win about 50% of the time. So the chance of obtaining the observed result, where the higher-spending candidate wins nine out of twelve times, purely by fluke is the sum of the binomial coefficients of winning at least 9 times divided by two to the power of twelve, which I make to be about 0.072998.
So no, not significant; we need a few more elections before we can say for sure.
(And of course this is quite a simplistic analysis; there could be confounding factors, such as that if one candidate is obviously going to win then donors may want to give them money in order to curry favour, which would inflate their spending total).
I'm afraid you're out of date with your analysis
DeleteIt's been advised for a long time - by the American Statistical Association amongst others - that p values should be used in statistical inference rather than the strict hypothesis test involving alpha at 0.05 and 0.01
This allows for a more nuanced evaluation of the results rather than a definitive significant or not decision.
In this case - given the limited information - we assume there is no association between campaign spend and the likelihood of winning the election so each candidate has a 50/50 chance.
This implies that 6 of the winners should have been the big spender and 6 should not
However, we observe that 9 out of 12 were big spenders.
What's the probability of this IF campaign spend does NOT affect winning?
The answer is 0.073 (as you report)
That is IF campaign spend does NOT affect winning then the probability of 9 out of 12 winners having the biggest spend is only 7.3%
What conclusions you come to based on that depends on interpretation
For me, it reinforces my opinion that more money means a better chance of being elected - although it's not definitive "proof".
What conclusions you come to based on that depends on interpretation
DeleteAnd, shockingly, your interpretation leads you to the conclusion that you had already decided you wanted to find. Who could have predicted that?
Logic as Spock would say
DeleteThere's 7% chance of 9/12 wins that had nothing to do with campaign spend OR there's a 93% chance that 9/12 wins DID have something to do with campaign spend
Even a Reform supporter would see which way the wind is blowing (from France to England presumably)
Thanks for the above information Mik W, which is enough to convince me the "commonplace" is a pretty reliable guide. Thanks also for your detailed contributions above on party funding and the press. The Scottish experience speaks volumes. I agree we need to tackle the press as well as party funding. As a general rule I think media owners should live in this country and pay taxes. Social media will be more difficult to control.
ReplyDeleteI agree we need to tackle the press as well as party funding.
DeleteHang on. I thought you accepted that people’s votes are an expression of their legitimate opinions.
If that’s the case, why do we need to ‘tackle’ the press? Are you reverting to saying you think that people can be brainwashed by the media to vote in the way the media wants them to, rather than in the way they actually want to?
I mean I know you get all your opinions from the Manchester Guardian, but other people aren’t as easily manipulated as your sort.
So here's an interesting question for you
DeleteIf people's opinions and voting intentions are NOT influenced by party advertising why do all the political parties spend their limited budgets on such advertising?
Around £20 million was spent on political advertising for the 2024 election - more than half of that on Meta/google/Facebook
If people's opinions and voting intentions are NOT influenced by party advertising why do all the political parties spend their limited budgets on such advertising?
DeleteOh that’s easy. There are two reasons for a political party to advertise:
1. To tell people what you believe, and how you propose to achieve them so that they know that if they believe the same things, and think your plans are practical, they should vote for you.
2. To tell people things they might not know about what your opponents do and believe, so that they know if they disagree with your opponents they shouldn’t vote for them.
Neither of those influence people’s opinions or views. They just let people know which parties they should vote for based on their pre-existing views.
How naive!
DeleteAdvertising is just for information then?
Tell that to Tesco, Heinz, Google, Musk ....
No attempt there to "influence" surely?
Grow up
ScienceDirect
"Opinion formation refers to the process by which individuals develop personal beliefs and attitudes based on various influences, including everyday experiences, media, education, and social learning. This process involves learning from others through observation, imitation, and modeling, leading to the acquisition of opinions that may not be grounded in proof or certainty."
"leading to the acquisition of opinions that may not be grounded in proof or certainty."
Deletesounds just like Reform
Advertising is just for information then?
DeleteTell that to Tesco, Heinz, Google, Musk ....
Yes. Why else do Tesco run advertisements informing people of what their prices are? Why else do Heinz run advertisements informing people of the flavours of their soups?
(As I say, we know that some people, like you, have no ideas of their own so just believe everything they read in the Guardian. But most people are not so weak-minded)
DeleteTesco etc advertise in order to influence people's behaviour - in this case case buying. (Ask Tesco)
DeletePolitical parties advertise to influence people's behaviour - in this case voting
Btw it's decades since I read the Grauniad
Tesco etc advertise in order to influence people's behaviour - in this case case buying. (Ask Tesco)
DeleteNo. Tesco make their prices low in order to influence people’s behaviour. The advertising just informs people about the low prices.
Do grow up
DeleteTesco spend over £100 million a year on traditional advertising - good of them to spend so much telling us about their low prices
Reform spent over £5 million telling us about their "policies" even though they had major media coverage with virtually no one in the country not aware of Farage. No wonder they need overseas donations
Tesco spend over £100 million a year on traditional advertising - good of them to spend so much telling us about their low prices
DeleteNot really — it’s an arms race. If Asda spend £90 million a year telling us about their low prices, Tesco have to spend £100 million or there will be people who think that Asda’s prices are lower than Tesco’s.
Reform spent over £5 million telling us about their "policies" even though they had major media coverage
Yes, because there are millions of people in the country who never read a newspaper and never watch the news on television. How else can Reform make sure they are aware of their policies than by paying for advertising targeted specifically at them?
I doubt there are many who DON'T know about Reform and their views from the widespread (unpaid) media coverage
DeleteI doubt there are many who DON'T know about Reform and their views from the widespread (unpaid) media coverage
DeleteAnd how exactly would someone who never reads a newspaper and never watches television news find out about media coverage?
"And how exactly would someone who never reads a newspaper and never watches television news find out about media coverage?"
DeleteOh dear. How many millions of people in the UK do you think that describes? :-)
Answer from Ofcom - around 96% of UK adults consume news in some form (TV, online, radio, or newspapers) implying that 4% don't
If those are the people that reform is pending £5+ million trying to reach then I'd class it as money well spent!
"advertising just informs people about the low prices."
ReplyDeleteI do chuckle when I see your posts
tell you what.
If you ever get the chance to get into the marketing dept of any commercial organisation tell them exactly the same.
Then waits for the howls of laughter from the marketing professionals!
Or better still do some proper research into the published studies investigating how advertising impacts on peoples' opinions and decisions.
There's lots available online from reputable sources.
But then again - why let the facts get in the way of your opinion!
If you ever get the chance to get into the marketing dept of any commercial organisation tell them exactly the same.
DeleteWell of course marketing people will tell you that advertising changes opinions, because if they told the truth they would all be out if a job!
but unlike yourself they'll actually have evidence to back up their claim
Deletebut unlike yourself they'll actually have evidence to back up their claim
DeleteWell of course they will make up evidence — wouldn’t you if you job was at stake?
It's not made up - there's hard and independent evidence available that you clearly want to avoid as you're in denial. As I said, like so many you don't want the facts to get in the way of your fantasies
DeleteIt's not made up - there's hard and independent evidence available that you clearly want to avoid as you're in denial.
DeleteGo on, point to this evidence that is impartial and proves causation and not just correlation then.
Do the Alternative für Deutschland party get lots of media coverage in Germany? Or do people vote for them in large numbers despite little media coverage or advertising, because the other parties refuse to address their concerns?
Deleteas I've previously said I'm not your research assistant
DeleteThis material is readily available via Google and other search engines for those who can be bothered and have a GENUINE interest in serious debate and in learning.
I find many who are simple dogmatic in their views, keep repeating the same things and can provide no substantive evidence to support these and who clearly have no interest in learning.
Join the club
I find many who are simple dogmatic in their views, keep repeating the same things and can provide no substantive evidence to support these
DeleteWell, as you keep repeating the same things and refuse to provide any substantive evidence to support them, I guess you know what you are talking about.
of course that would be your reply.
DeleteYou simply keep repeating the same old mantra
Whatever gets you through the night ....
of course that would be your reply.
DeleteWell yes, because it’s true.
Unless you’d like to point to some of this mythical ‘evidence’ that you insist supports your position?
Thought not.
tell you what
DeleteI'll show you mine if you show me yours
Here's a brief list of empirical evidence on voter behavior - there's lots more if you can be bothered to look (and we know you can't because you'd have to change your opinion)
Let's see your "evidence" now - it's put up or shut up time
Political advertising and consumer sentiment: Evidence from U.S. presidential elections
Cody Couture, Ann L. Owen
European Journal of Political Economy Date: January 2025 Article: 102647 Volume: Volume 86
We merge panel survey data on consumer sentiment with data on U.S. political advertisements run from 2013 to 2020 and estimate dynamic panel data models predicting the effect of positive, negative, and contrasting ads on several measures of consumer sentiment. We find that political ads during Presidential election cycles have a significant impact.
Do Online Ads Sway Voters? Understanding the Persuasiveness of Online Political Ads
Xiaotong Chu, Rens Vliegenthart, Lukas Otto,Sophie Lecheler,Claes de Vreese &Sanne Kruikemeier
Political Communication Volume 41, 2024 - Issue 2
This study investigates the effect of online political ads on party preference, and whether this effect is more pronounced for newer political parties and voters who are less politically knowledgeable and literate regarding online privacy. A mixed-method approach, combining Facebook browser tracking data and a four-wave panel survey, was adopted during the 2021 Dutch General Election campaign. The results showed that the number of political ads received from a specific party has a positive effect on both the propensity and choice to vote for that party. In addition, people with less political knowledge and online privacy literacy are more likely to be persuaded by online political ads.
Political Advertising and Election Results
Jorg L. Spenkuch David Toniatti March 2018
We study the persuasive e#ects of political advertising. Our empirical strategy exploits FCC regulations that result in plausibly exogenous variation in the number
of impressions across the borders of neighboring counties. Applying this approach
to detailed data on television advertisement broadcasts and viewership patterns
during the 2004{12 presidential campaigns, our results indicate that total political
advertising has almost no impact on aggregate turnout. By contrast, we fi
nd a positive and economically meaningful e#ect of advertising on candidates' vote shares.
Taken at face value, our estimates imply that a standard deviation increase in the
partisan di#erence in advertising raises the partisan di#erence in vote shares by
about 0.5 percentage points. Evidence from a regression discontinuity design suggests that advertising a#ects election results by altering the partisan composition
of the electorate.
and more
DeleteHow Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?
Brett Gordon, Mitchell J. Lovett, Bowen Luo, James Reeder
During presidential election campaigns, voters in battleground states are bombarded with TV ads. Some commercials paint candidates in glowing terms, raving about their impressive accomplishments and sterling character. Other ads go on the attack: they tear down the opponents’ record, disparage their ethics, and generally argue they would be an absolutely terrible leader.
But how much do all those ads, negative or positive, matter?
But in a new study, Gordon and his colleagues report that TV ads do influence voter turnout and choices—and that the tone of the ad makes a difference. Based on data from the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, the team found that positive ads encouraged more people to show up on Election Day, while negative ads slightly suppressed turnout. And while both types of commercials affected whom people supported, the negative ones were more effective at swaying voters’ decisions.
Online political advertising in the UK 2019 election
lblogs.lse.ac.uk
Exposure to online political ads has a positive but small effect on party preference. Studies indicate that receiving more ads from a specific party increases the likelihood of voting for that party by approximately 8.4% per additional ad, though the total effect remains modest (less than 5% increase even with multiple exposures). This persuasiveness is stronger among voters with lower political knowledge and for new parties seeking visibility. Furthermore, advertising appears to influence vote share by mobilizing core supporters rather than persuading undecided voters, tilting the partisan composition of the electorate.
Press releases aren’t evidence, especially when they are from outlets with a clear interest in finding one particular result. You need to provide links to the actual studies with the methodologies and evidence.
DeleteThese are not press releases they're abstracts of published works that you can find for yourself using what I've provided.
DeleteYou requested my evidence - here's some of it
Where's yours?
Put up or shut up for the last time
PS I know you won't be putting up and you're incapable of shutting up so unless there's any evidence from you I won't be engaging in any further discussion. I'll know it's all BS
These are not press releases they're abstracts of published works
DeleteThen paste the links.
You requested my evidence - here's some of it
DeleteWhere's yours?
My what? You can’t have evidence that something doesn’t exist. The person claiming it has to give the evidence that it does.
As I predicted pure BS
DeleteQED