Rock bottom for our democracy

 

I think that when historians come to assess politics in the UK over the pas four years, and particularity the last four weeks, they will identify Wednesday 30th  December, 2020 as the date on which our  liberal democracy hit rock bottom.  

 After an ill-deigned referendum and campaign peppered with lies and probably influenced by foreign interference  a minority of a restricted  electorate voted to leave the European Union. This was magnified  to represent "the will of the people", and our leaders we manoeuvred by ideologues into aiming for the severest severance  possible.  In the final  few weeks of negotiations the public were fuelled with news of fake drama, and the negotiations ended in an alleged "triumph" for the government on Christmas Eve, the only day in the year which is not followed by the publication of newspapers. 

So detailed criticism was deferred.

 And then, yesterday, the "deal", the most serious  decision our nation has had to take for half a century, was bounced through the Commons with only five hours of debate.

We are a liberal democracy and our system is one of parliamentary democracy.  It is a system that prizes full, free  informed and balanced information and subsequent deliberation at its core. The UK claims to be one of the world's pioneers in achieving a liberal democracy.  Some like to boast (wrongly) that ours is the Mother of Parliaments. 

 The deliberate distortion of our information followed by contempt for our parliament surely means the the operation of our political system has reached its nadir.

 In the latest issue of Prospect magazine Timothy Garten Ash writes on the future of liberalism, which he believes is endangered not just in this country but in the rest of what we regard as the liberal democratic world, both from the inside and from those who would like to see it collapse.  It is a long read and rather short on solutions, but should be read as a warning against complacency.

   https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/author/timothy-garton-ash-2

There is now an urgent need in this country for the progressive majority to co-operate to to break the stranglehold of the present Conservative party, now in thrall to forces willing to use whatever means available to retain the levers of power and reward themselves and their backers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the distoiaon of these and the final contempt show to parilanent,

Losers

 

Economist divide trade into two  major types: goods and services.    Goods are physical things like lettuces or cars, though they are not necessarily all "good."   A packet of cigarettes is a "good " in this sense, even though it is likely to lead to a premature and painful death.

Services are non-physical, or "immaterial" things which are done by others for you, such as a haircut, a TV programme, or your education.

We trade with the European Union in both goods and services .  

The "deal" agreed last week and to be voted on in parliament tomorrow is almost entirely restricted to goods.  

 UK goods entering the EU and vice versa will not have to pay customs duties, not will here be limits on quantities (quotas), but there will be checks and customs examinations to make sure that they conform to approved standards. There will be similar checks on goods going from the UK mainland to Northern Ireland.

The deal takes, as yet, no account of services, which is quite a handicap, since about three quarters of what the British economy now produces is services.  Many of these, such as haircuts, do not enter much into international trade (unless you happen to be devoted to  a particular French barber or Italian hairdresser) but many do. Until Friday our service providers can trade with the rest of the EU without any restrictions other than those which apply to everyone else.  

But not after 1st January.

This will be particularly awkward for financial services in which the UK is particularity skilled. and are at resent a major earner of foreign currency. But there's much more to trade in services than that.

In a contribution to the online magazine "The Article" the former Labour MP Denis MacShane spells out how our service sector goes far beyond financial services:

   The immaterial economy

While manufactured goods and most food will keep access to the Single Market – Marmite will still be on sale without tariffs – there is no guaranteed future for the millions of qualified, innovative professionals in the financial sector, banking, insurance, investment funds, management consultancy, legal advice, medicine, architecture, video, films, events organisers, creative workers like musicians and singers, all of whom have been working freely in Europe for decades without let and hindrance. They will now have to negotiate deals on equivalence or other access one by one with the EU 27, who will be quite happy to keep at bay British service providers to the benefit of their own nationals.

See

  https://www.thearticle.com/ten-winners-and-losers-from-the-deal

for the complete article. 

The many talented people involved in these areas will hardly be singing "tidings of great joy."

 

 

H.E. the Rt. Hon. Mekere Morauta Kt MP

 Mekere Moraoutam, who was Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea (PNG)  from 1999 to 2002, died a few days before Christmas.  He was born in what I take to be the remote village of Kukipi in Eastern Kerema.PMG, was educated a the village primary school and local high school, then Sogeri National High School,  Lae Polytechnic and the University of PNG.  He tidied economics and before his political career,  served as Governor of the Bank of PMG,  the Central Bank.  I'd like to be able to say that  taught him but I didn't.

In 2006 whilst still an MP but no longer PM he visited Martyrs' School in Ooro Province where I had taught in the final three yeas of the 80s.  A pupil from that time, Harold Badirega has , as a tribute to Morauta, circulated a copy of the speech he made to the students and staff on that occasion.

Here are four  extracts.

In this first one, on the value of education, I love the inclusion of knowing how to maintain your outboard motor (PNG has a lot of coastline) and " the joy and opportunities that come from reading" as among the essentials of life. I wonder if any of our recent education secretaries  would recognise them.

 . . . [E]ducation is a social leveller, but it is also an investment. Education is the key to equipping people not just for big jobs in government or the private sector, but for everyday life. Understanding the world around us, knowledge of the world and of practical things, of health,sanitation, nutrition, of mathematics, of new ways of doing things, whether it is building a house or growing crops, fishing or animal husbandry, or maintaining a vehicle or outboard motor - these are the essentials of everyday life. The joy and opportunities for discovery that come from reading - these are not privileges, but things every single person has a right to.

 In this second extract Morauta stresses the need for the majority (my emphasis) of leaders to be "ethical, principled  and honest. " He is not unrealistic: he is not suggesting they all should be.  I wonder how many of our present UK cabinet fit the description.

. . .[N]either development, nor ethical government, can be wished into being. The chances of good government are certainly improved if the majority of leaders are ethical, principled and honest. But these personal traits,on their own, are not enough to institute or sustain good governance or development.

Other factors must also exist.One is political stability. Another is the existence of strong and appropriate institutions of state, institutions which are structured to promote the principles of good governance in their functioning — accountability,transparency, openness and predictability. Also required is a well-informed civil society, led by people who understand the issues, objectively voice concerns and contribute to finding solutions to issues. Churches,universities, the media, business, NGOs and community groups all have a role to play. 

 This third exact describes some of the social problems facing many developing countries, but some mature ones as well.

 Our social indicators show that health standards, in particular, are worse than they were 25 years ago. We constantly hear of, and experience, the shortage of drugs and medical equipment in our health centres and hospitals. Infant and maternal mortality rates are the highest in the region. Our literacy level is still low — only around 60 per cent. Children do not have books and other educational materials at their schools — some do not even have pencils and paper, while others are not at school at all, because their parents cannot afford to pay the fees. 

Per capita income has declined, despite the mines, oil fields, timber projects and factories that have been developed. There is greater disparity in income levels than at Independence - some people are much better off, but the gap between the haves and the have nots is wider. The population is growing faster than the economy and faster than the Government's capacity to provide basic  services. Infrastructure is inadequate, and deteriorating. HIV/AIDS is spreading fast, indeed killing many of our youngest and brightest.

And now cones the sting, the explanation.

What are the root causes of these problems? Lack of vision  of leaders; failure to invest for the future; the bigman culture of politics; politicisation of the public sector; waste in public expenditure; inefficiency and lack of capacity of the public sector; corruption, and use of state power and privilege for personal gain — these are the factors that have held back our development.

 PNG gained independence from Australia in 1975, while I was there (I am not claiming cause and effect.) Its first Prime Minister,  Michael Somare, once joked that he regarded Westminster  as "our grandmother parliament."  

Their present grandparents have a lot to learn from this single  grandchild.

Boris pulls it off . . .

 . . . or, of you like, "brings home the bacon."

After months of:  "a deal is unlikely,"  "the EU's demands are completely unrealistic," "Britain will thrive  with no deal," suddenly with a flourish, a deal is pulled out of the hat.

1. Carefully choreographed  to be announced this Christmas Eve as a present along with those  from Santa.

2.  With the details not yet available so that all we can do is rejoice at the achievement of the hitherto unlikely if not impossible.

2. Carefully rebranded as "Australia -style" to disguise the fact that, when we do see the details, it's a very thin thing and does not cover the main part of the UK economy - services.

3.  On the day before the only day of the year when there are no newspapers, so the commentariat  is muted and there's less chance of informed analysis to reveal of how meagre it is.

4.  Followed by a Sunday, a Bank Holiday, and a week that has for many become a holiday period,  so most minds are focused on making the best of the fun available.

5.  So that by the time we get back to "normal" working and criticising conditions,  (effectively 4th January), the caravan will have moved on.

 

Brilliant.

 

You have to hand it to them.

I bet Dominic Cummings had this timetable on his events planner long before his services were dispensed with.

 

Given the Dailly Mail's headline today, "Hallelujah, it's a Merry Brexit,"  and the Daily Express with its front page picture of their flaxen haired hero surrounded by the bold print "Brexit is Done 'Johnson will feel that Cummings has earned his £40 000 bonus.

 

Merry Christmas in manipulated Britain.

Goodnews Johnson

 

From 2010 to 2015 the President of Nigeria was His Excellency Goodluck Johnson .  Presumably "Goodluck" is a literal translation of a first name common in Nigerian culture, just as my name, Peter, is a translation of Rock, and Irene means peace, and probably originally given in the hope that the child will be endowed with some of the finer aspects of the name.

Following that reasoning it would have been appropriate to give the name "Goodnews" to  our Prime Minster, Alexander* Johnson, since he has the undoubted  gift of proclaiming Good News in all sorts of circumstances ("word beating,"  "oven ready" et al) even when they turn out to be not good at all, or even moderately average.

 From his earliest days as prime minister Johnson has been very reluctant to announce bad news, even  when  it was highly desirable to do so promptly.  Hence our severance from the EU must  go ahead at the end of this year regardless of the pandemic; he could shake hands with hospital workers in spite of  of warnings not to; Goodwood and an international rugby union game and accompanying crowds could go ahead; the March lockdown was far too late and cost cost 20 000 lives; all would be back to normal  by Christmas.

In fact it is far from normal and has  seen seen to be so for some time, but Johnson hadn't the courage to decree that multi-family celebrations should be abandoned.  No, up to three families could still meet together for five full days.  When the "science" insisted that this was bound to cause pronounced increases in infections, hospitalisations and deaths, until yesterday this advice still remained in force.

Mr Johnson has all the characteristic of a supply teacher who has lost control of the class and appeals to their  better natures.  This is what you're allowed to do, but please don't do it.

At last, from yesterday,  travel and multi-family meetings are banned in a new Tier Four, and mixing in other area is reduced to just the one day.

Fortunately I believe "the British people" (a phrase of which Johnson is very fond) have more sense than an unruly class of adolescents, and the overwhelming majority of us  will  stick to "one family only" cerebrations,  a small sacrifice to make in order to enable more of us to survive to next Christmas and well beyond.

 

" Johnson has three given names, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel,   but I understand the first,  or its diminutive "Al," is the one the family and friends use.  "Boris" for public use is a curious pretension.

 

On not BEing PREPARED

 

In October 2016, a few weeks after David Cameron walked away and Theresa May our became Prime Minister, the government ran an exercise to test Britain's preparedness to deal with a pandemic.   

The findings were that we were woefully unprepared.

The exercise, called Cygnus, made six recommendations, relating to:

1. Capacity; such as availability of ICU beds, PPE etc:
2. Planning; delegation and regional co-ordination etc:
3. Education; what to do about schools, colleges and universities:
4. Care homes - yes, they were thought about:
5. Communications:
6. Social distancing.
   

The report was not published at the time and efforts to gain access to it have produced only heavily redacted versions.

The report was shelved and the recommendations largely ignored.  Though at the time related to influenza, they are, of course highly relevant to dealing with the Covid-19 or any other pandemic.

 Such details as are available can be found here:

 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/six-crucial-pandemic-lessons-government-ignored/

 Note, the Daily Torygraph.  This blog uses varied sources.

In his Reith Lecture this morning, Mark Carney, immediate ex-Governor of the Bank of England commented, if I heard him correctly, that the cost of implementation of the recommendations would have been equivalent to two days of lockdown.  That's the monetary cost.  

The cost in lives is estimated to have been at least 20 000

 Note that this same political party, with its cheese-paring polices of cutting public expenditure and thus running down the state, including the health services, were in charge at the time, have been ever since, and will probably be for the next four years.

 Pity Mrs May wasn't in the Girl Guides and that Boris Johnson frittered away his youth in the Bullingdon Club rather than the Boy Scouts. 

 

 

Humans need rights

 

It must be a good ten years ago that one of my hiking companions, a staunch Conservative, said he was getting fed up hearing about people claiming their human rights.  To say I was astonished is putting it mildly.  I had thought that everybody accepted respect for human rights: that this was a given in a civilised democracy, just as all Americans are supposed do believe in motherhood and apple pie.

 I now realise that my companion was probably absorbing drip-feed from his favoured newspaper source, the Daily Mail. His and our  problem is that for most of we comfortable British, only very rarely does some misfortune affect us that requires us to appeal to our human rights.  

This, however, is not true of those who, for one reason or another, are pushed to the margins of society.  These include the disabled, the homeless, many of those relying on social security payments, all prisoners and particularly those  who die in custody, migrants, asylum seekers, those claiming they are victims of rape, our soldiers in wars and the enemies they face -  even terrorists.

Yesterday, 10th December, was World Human Rights Day because the United Nations passed the Universal Declaration of Human Rights  on that date in 1948.

The Labour Government in 1998 introduced the Human Rights Bill in the UK, which became operative in 2000.  Our present government is using this as an excuse for reviewing the "effectiveness" of the Act.

In particular the are concerned with the increasing use of Judicial Review, which allows the courts to decide whether or not such and such an act of the government is actually legal.  

Recent examples have been the attempt by the May Government to implement  Article 50 for leaving the EU without reference to parliament (it wasn't) and  the prorogation of parliament to "get Brexit done" without their scrutiny (that wasn't either, leading the the Daily Mail to describe the judges as "enemies of the people.")

 That the government (then the Crown) should obey the law was one of the principles of Magna Carta, first passed in 1215, on which matter we probably really were then world leaders.

 Attempts  to water down the Act diminishes us on the world stage and endangers some our  most vulnerable people.  These attempts  should be resisted vigorously.  

Those who would like to help should join  Liberty.

https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/contact-us/

 

You can do so for as little as £1 per month.