Thursday, 4 February 2016

Cameron giveth - and Cameron taketh away.


David Cameron is to be congratulated in helping to initiate, and to host, the London Conference which has pledged a total of  $10bn  to help refugees from war-torn Syria, and in particular to ensure that as many as possible of the displaced children receive an education.

Cameron is also correct to emphasise the importance of helping those refugees  displaced to camps near Syria rather than concentrating only on those who have made perilous journeys and entered, or are on the borders of, the EU.  As a contributor to the  BBC Radio 4 programme " Start the Week"  last week (still available here) pointed out, those who have made the journey are not only among the most courageous refugees, but also the wealthiest who can afford the payments to the people-traffickers: there are many equally deserving cases back in the camps without these advantages. Unfortunately Cameron talks in terms of "either-or" whereas, in all humanity, we must cope with both.

Cameron boastfully reminds us that Britain is already the second largest donor to the Syrian Refugee cause, and that the additional £1.7bn he now promises (but over four years) will more than double our present contribution.

However, if I heard the BBC News correctly, this extra money is to come from the existing aid budget - the 0.7% of GDP we are so proud of achieving. So it is to be money taken from that which would otherwise be used to help others in poverty-stricken situations.

My father and his brothers were very fond of quoting a ditty:

It's the poor that helps the poor
When poverty knocks at the door.

. . .maybe from a Victorian or Edwardian music-hall song .

That seems to be an apt description of Britain's "extra" contribution.

I admit there is a certain logic to this, but I would be prouder, in these exceptionally distressing circumstances, if, rather than a transfer, this had been additional money raised from those of us who can easily afford it by:

an extra 1p on one of the income;
2p on a litre of petrol or diesel;
the proceeds of a tax on sugar;
1p on a pint of beer of 2p on a bottle of wine:
or a 0.01% capital transfer tax.:
or scrapping prestige projects such as HS2 or Trident

There are plenty of possibilities

Wednesday, 3 February 2016

Cameron and In-work benefits.


We're taught that in the Middle Ages scholars spent their time discussing abstruse topics such as "how many angels can dance on the point of a pin?"  This was thought to be pretty pointless (pun accidental) at the best of times and particularly irrelevant at times of crisis such as when Constantinople was threatened  by the invasion of barbarian (ouch) hordes.

There seem to be to be serious similarities between this situation and Cameron's obsession with in-work benefits for EU nationals working in the UK.  Last week I asked a friend who had served in the coalition as a junior minister if he had any idea how much these in-work benefits cost, or what proportion of the social security bill, or of total government expenditure, they formed.  He said he didn't know, and the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) didn't really know either.

One of the complications (spelled out in this Guardian article) is that HMRC (the revenue collecting department, but also responsible for working tax credits) defines a family as "Non UK" if one adult in it is an immigrant (ie even if married to or living with a UK citizen.)  So some of this expenditure goes to families which many of us would  define as British (or at least part-British)

However, the same article reports the DWP as conceding that "EU migrants on “in-work” benefits cost the taxpayer £530m in 2013." That, according to the article, represents a modest 1.6% of the year’s total tax credit bill.

By my calculations, as the UK's national income is over £2 trillion, that represent about a quarter of one per cent, or £1 in every £400,a little bit more than peanuts, perhaps, though it must be balanced by the in-work benefits, if any (I haven't the energy to try and find out) received by the 1.3 million British nationals living in other parts of the EU.

Whatever the balance is, it is hardly sufficient on which to decide the great issue of whether to remain in or leave the European Union.

 While this nonsense is distracting us, Europe, and the rest of the rich world, is faced with the most demanding problem of modern times: how to deal with migration from poorer countries, often made so by conflict.  Given modern communications and relatively cheap intentional travel this problem is not going to go away, even if and when some of the conflicts are resolved. Any solution must involve not just European but international co-operation.

And here in the UK we have our own desperate problems, of insufficient housing, low productivity, a yawning balance of payment deficit, a health service stretched beyond its capacity, and growing inequality.

Angels on a pin, or fiddling while Rome burns?  It is hard to decide on the more apt analogy.

Wednesday, 27 January 2016

Holocaust Memorial Day.


Here is an extract from Primo Levi's astonishingly laconic account of his time in Auschwitz, If his is a Man.  A "selection" (of those to be sent to the gas chamber) is about to take place.

Our Blockbaltester knows his business.  He has made sure that we have all entered [their hut], he has locked the door, he has given everyone his card with his number, name, profession, age and nationality, and has ordered everyone to undress completely, except for shoes.  We wait like this, naked, with the card in our hands, for the commission to reach our hut.  We are hut 48, but one can never tell if they are going to begin at hut 1 or hut 60.  At any rate, we can rest quietly at least for an hour, and there is no reason why we should not get under the blankets of the bunk and keep warm.

Many are already drowsing when a barrage of orders, oaths and blows proclaims the imminent arrival of the commission.  The Blockaltester and his helpers, starting from the end of the dormitory , drive the crowd of frightened, naked people  in front of them and cram them into the Tagesraum, which is the quartermaster's office. 
[. . . .]
The Blockaltester has closed the connecting door and has opened the other two which led form the dormitory and the Tagesraum outside.  Here in front of the two doors, stands the arbiter of our fate, an SS subaltern.  On his right is the Blockaltester, on his left the quartermaster of the hut.  Each one of us, as he comes naked out of the Tagesraum  into the cold October air, has to run a few steps  between the two doors, give the card to the SS man and enter the dormitory  door.  The SS man, with a glance at one's back and front, judges everyone's fate, and in turn gives the card  to the man on his right or his left, and this is the life or death of each of us.. . . .

. . . Like everyone else I passed by with a brisk  and classic step, trying to hold my head high, my chest forward and my muscles contracted and conspicuous.   With the corner of my eye I tried to look behind my shoulders, and my card seemed to end on the right. . .

As we gradually come back into the dormitory we are allowed to dress ourselves.  Nobody knows yet  with certainty his own fate, it has first of all to be established  whether the condemned cards  were those on the right or the left.*

Those on the left went to the gas chambers, and Levi survived.

As Giles Fraser, former Canon of St Paul's Cathedral, points our in a thoughtful article in yesterday's Guardian  there is an argument that  comparison of other events with the Holocaust "posits a moral equivalence that downplays the horror of the death camps."  Yet we must recognise that there have been genocides since 1945,  in Cambodia, Rwanda, Bosnia, and, currently, Darfur.  All at base happen because one group regards another as less human than themselves.

Our casual attitude to migrants, asylum seekers and refugees drowning in the Mediterranean, "keep out" fences erected around some EU countries, the squalid conditions in the "Jungle" outside Calais, the pathetically small number of places offered to refugees by our government and our shameful opt-out of any EU sharing agreement, the incompetent treatment of applications for asylum, the hostile reaction of some to asylum seekers identified by red doors and red wristbands, are dangerous, if preliminary, steps down a slippery slope. 

Last Saturday I was engaged in (apparently animated) discussion with a friend on one of the main streets of Leeds.  A young man asked us if we were discussing politics.  We said we were and he asked us if we were for "In" or "Out" of the European Union.  Our enthusiastic response of "In" seemed to take him by surprise
.
"What about the refugees?" he demanded.

When I said we should treat them humanely and welcome them he exploded;  "African shit!" not once but several times.


When I said I had lived in Africa for several years and never met anyone I would describe in those terms I was told to "F--- off."

Given  the poison oozed out by some of our press, I suspect there would be no shortage of volunteers to be Blockaltesters  in this country should the opportunity arise.  We desperately need a civilised counter-argument and lead from our politicians before it is too late, and all of us need to observe the theme of this year's Memorial Day, "Don't stand by."

*If This is a Man, Primo Levi, pp 142/3,Abacus, 2013

Friday, 22 January 2016

Immigrants


Immigrants, fear of them, suspicion of them or jealousy of them, played a minor part in last year's general election and is likely to play a major part in the forthcoming referendum on EU membership.

Those who claim to be worried about immigration remain unconvinced by the evidence that immigrants add to  economic growth, pay more into the government kitty in taxes than they take out in benefits or the use of public services, and are often highly innovative people who contribute enormously to our way of life.  Michael Marks, an immigrant from the Polish part of the then Russian Empire, who with Thomas Spencer started the famous Marks and Spencer's high street  retailer as a "penny an item" market stall in Leeds in 1884, is a good local example. There are dozens of earlier  and more recent examples in Robert Winder's highly readable book "Bloody Foreigners."

Those not reassured by the "macro" arguments might like to do a more personal inventory.  I've just done this and find that immigrants, or the offspring of recent immigrants:

  • sell me my morning paper;
  • drill and fill what's left of  my teeth;
  • clean my car;
  • dispense my medicines;
  • provide about a third of my health care (depends on which of my various ailments is being treated);
  • provide the vicar, brilliant organist, one of the two Franciscan friars attached to us, and a goody (godly?) portion of the choir and congregation of the church (firmly C of E) I attend;
  • give me an opportunity to teach, as a volunteer, ESOL (English to Speakers of Other Languages), a highly interesting and entertaining weekly experience which makes me feel still useful;
  • run my second favourite restaurant;
  • provide me with my remaining few hours of paid employment.*
Altogether my life would be much less comfortable, and much less interesting, without immigrants.

*  This last group are post-graduate students on a business-studies at a local university.  In my view they shouldn't be included in the "immigrant" count as the overwhelming majority go home once they've completed their course. Their university fees and living expenses are a tremendous boost to our yawning balance of payments, and most return to their countries with a very favourable impression of the UK.  However, the government in its stupidity includes them  in the "immigration" count, tries to limit their numbers and discourages them from remaining for more higher degrees, research or opening up businesses here.

Wednesday, 20 January 2016

Cameron clueless on liberalism


Our prime minister, David Cameron,  claims that "We must be more assertive  about our liberal values."  To this end Muslim women who don't speak English are to be given lessons and, if they don't comply, they are to be deported.  This will be the case, if I heard the interview on BBC's"Today" programme correctly yesterday  morning, even if they have been here long enough to have had children here, and their children speak English.

Way back in 2007 ago Guardian columnist Timothy Garton Ash   defined liberalism as 

"a quest for the greatest possible measure  of individual human freedom, compatible with the freedom of others."

In short: "live and let live," providing you're not harming others' freedom to do the same.  The whole article is very pertinent to the present nonsense and is well worth a read.

Given Garton Ash's helpful definition , it is hard to see how  a minority of Muslim women who fail, or can't be bothered, to learn English, are acting outside our Liberal values, and they certainly don't merit this draconian threat. I suspect a good many of English-speaking  emigrants to the sunny coasts of Spain are in the same situation , and would be very upset if  the Spanish government threatened them similarly.

Yes, it would be nice, and socially cohesive, if immigrants to our country accommodated to our society, and I suspect the overwhelming majority of them do. How far his "accommodation" should go is a matter for debate.

But Cameron's intervention into an area of some delicacy generates recreations of both rage (indignation  is not strong enough) and disgust.

Cameron, product of the public relations industry, is a master of the craft of saying one thing whilst doing another. So rage because his is the government that has both specifically cut public spending on English for Speakers of of Other Languages (ESOL) classes, and has starved  and continues to starve the Further Education (FE)sector, the main provider of these classes, of funding. ( Education expenditure is supposed to be "protected " from cuts, but this "protection" applies only for eduction  up to the age of sixteen.  FE colleges and Sixth From colleges are all suffering from cuts.)

 Bradford is one of the areas where the figure of one in five  Muslim women not having competence in English is probably correct (the national rate is about 6%, or nearer one in twenty).  The staff of the FE college there are incensed at Cameron's intervention when they consider how their ESOL provision has been reduced over the past few years as a direct result of government policies.

But we must also ask why Cameron has intervened in this issue in such a high profile manner, or even at all. If the government has realised that the cuts in  ESOL provision are an error, then there is a Secretary of State for Education, and even a Minister of State, a Nick Boles, specifically responsible for Further Education and Skills, who could quietly and constructively have reversed the policy, restoring and even increasing  provision of ESOL classes for all who need then, and not just Muslim women.

It is hard to avoid the suspicion that Cameron is indulging in "dog whistle" politics, to appeal to he lowest and meanest instincts of the electorate: "We know that you don't like foreigners, especially those with different coloured skins and different religions.  So we'll get tough on them, as far as our veneer of political correctness allows. No need for UKIP: you can rely on us to sort them out."

There is nothing liberal about Cameron's intervention.  Rather it is politics in its lowest form:  a reversion  to the "nasty party" of Michael Howard and "Are you thinking what we're thinking?"  Cameron has brought shame on himself, his party and our country.




Sunday, 17 January 2016

Europe: the "ins" and "outs."


We are led to believe that David Cameron's "negotiations" with the other European leaders are coming to fruition, are about to be crowned with success, and our "IN - OUT" referendum could be held this year.

Not only those of us who are enthusiast for the EU, but also, I suspect, most of those who are quietly accepting of it, realise this is all a sham.  Cameron will declare "victory" whatever the terms (as Harold Wilson did in 1975) and the whole show is not about Britain's future but a shabby device by the Tory mainstream to outsmart UKIP and the sceptics still in it, and hold the party together (again, as Harold Wilson did in 1975.)

It is tempting to give a shrug, murmur  plus ca change. . . , and wait for the whole nonsense to be over so that we can get on with engaging with the real problems facing the UK  - a yawning balance of payments deficit, growing inequality, a housing crisis, desperately low productivity, a shaky economy dependent on increasing private indebtedness - to name but a few.

Such indifference  would, unfortunately, be a mistake.  Supporters of our EU membership have to remember that, whilst we are legitimately bored by the whole silly pretence, to the "OUT" crowd it is an issue which puts fire in their bellies.  If we are to avoid the tragedy of a vote to leave we must stir our stumps and react with similar passion.

An article in the January 2016 issue of Prospect  by John Springford and Simon Telford, both of the  Centre for European Reform, highlights several facts, some of which, of which, I suspect, the "OUT" campaign would rather glide over.  They are (additions in italics are mine):

1       Financial Contribution

UK’s gross annual contribution for membership was £19.2bn in 2015, but we received in return £9.4bn in eg agricultural subsidies, regional development and the British “rebate.”
So the net contribution was £9.8bn, or about 0.6% of GDP (slightly less than the foreign aid budget of 0.7% of GDP)  (I calculate this is just under £3 per person per week)

But if we leave the EU we shall still have to subscribe if we want favourable access to the market (eg the European Economic Area, EEA option). 
Most access (the Norway option): would reduce our net contribution by one tenth (by, not to). 
Less access (the Swiss option): by about half.
(These figures are net of the economic benefits of trading within the community, which some estimate as around £3 000 per household per year)).

2.  Access

Norway option: more or less as now, but with no say on making the rules and regulations.
Swiss option: preferential access on goods, but not services.
Word Trade Organisation (WTO) option (no preferential status)*: would face EU tariffs  like any foreign country, but would still have to abide by product specifications.

  3.  Immigration.

Both Norway and Swiss options would require our acceptance of  free movement of labour. (My emphasis.  UKIP certainly keep quiet about this)
Only by adopting the WTO option could we control immigration from Europe.  (We should still have to abide by international law, to which we have willingly subscribed, regarding refugees and asylum seekers)

 4.  Trade with the rest of the world.

We should be “free to do as we like" (under WTO rules) but would not inherit  the EU’s bilateral agreements.  Would have to re-negotiate with other trading partners, eg US, China, India, Brazil et al.  UK alone has not much bargaining power, as we are already pretty open to imports and inward investment

5.  Inward investment: will it go elsewhere? (No ide4a why the font has suddenly shrunk).  

Probably.  (The UK is a major recipient of inward investment (eg from the US and Japan)
6.       The City of London
Outside the EU would be able to bolster competitiveness by lighter regulation (my emphasis).  But European banks may remove themselves from the City  because they would still be  required to observe EU regulations.

7.       Agriculture
Farmers would lose EU subsidies (the CAP)  but probably demand, and get, them again from the UK government.
Food could become cheaper (by 13%?)
UK would not have to observe EU ban on GM crops.

8.       Regional Development
Wales and Northern Ireland are net gainers.
Scotland breaks even.
England is a loser.
Westminster would probably pick up the tab.

9.       Universities.
UK receives some 20% of EU research funds (about double our share)
Biggest loss would be  loss of equal access by UK academics  to EU jobs (and EU academics to UK).

10.   Greenhouse gas emissions.
Not much difference.  EU targets are feeble and the UK is poised to miss them anyway.
11.   Security
Would probably be able to remain in European Arrest Warrant and extradition agreements.
In foreign policy main weapon is economic sanctions, and EU has much bigger clout than UK alone.

12.   Scotland.
A vote to leave would probably trigger another referendum on Scottish independence (and thus break up the UK?)

Comments (by Keynesian Liberal, not from the article)
 *Britain’s leaving would be a severe blow the European “true believers” in the EU project and could open up other bids for exit.  Hence we should expect a tough stance from EU’s negotiators in the subsequent discussions about access and other perks (so as to discourage any others.)  We shall not leave overnight: the exiting process could take up to 10 years

I doubt it the trading of economic facts and figures is going to have much effect “ on the doorstep.”  People tend to believe whatever supports their prejudice.  Although we enthusiasts need to have the above and similar facts in reserve in countering arguments, I  believe we should base our campaign on the “higher ground”:  continued participation in a brave political adventure, the success of 60 years’ peace in (most of) Europe, a say in our future, internationalism, the advantages to the young (Leonardo scheme for apprentices, Erasmus for students), the weak alternative as a satellite  of the US with no say in what they decide.)

We must not be complacent.  The "electoral reform" referendum started with a two to one majority in favour, but was lost.  We must not let this happen again.


Thursday, 14 January 2016

The doctors' strike


I have little understanding of the points of contention in the doctors strike.

What I do know is that:

1.  Strikes are usually the result of bad management.

2.  When there's a 98% vote in favour of the strike, then this is no dispute whipped up by hotheads, but the result of serious and deeply felt misgivings.

The government's record on this issue is devious to say the least.  The Conservatives promised in their election campaign  in 2010 that there would be "no top-down reorganisation of the NHS."  This was no "small print" assurance, but was blazoned on large posters.

Yet within weeks after the election measure for the the "top down" reorganisation were introduced and it was clear that they had been in preparation for  months if not years.  Despite the opposition of the British Medical Association, the doctors' union, the "reforms" were pushed through.  The blundering originator of the reforms, Andrew Lansley, was replaced (he is now in the House of Lords and has  what is presumably a nice little earner as advisor drug company) but his successor, Jeremy Hunt, appointed to  "smooth things out" continues the bullying tactics.


In yesterday's Guardian  Dr Tamal Ray ( also star of a televised baking competitions) writes:

Our eyes have been opened to the subtle dismantling of a healthcare system we believe in and this has inspired a movement for change.
  
Over the years, beginning with Mr Thatcher, the Tories have successfully emasculated the
 unions acting for blue-collar workers.  Let's hope they've met their match in the BMA, and learn the lessons.

Good management is not achieved by diktat, but by co-opting the workforce, or at least its representatives, into what sociologists call the "authority hierarchy."  Successful management, like government, is by discussion.  I expect the discussions over the next couple of weeks will find a solution to the immediate dispute, and that it will be so phrased that both sides can claim victory.

The lesson is that arrogant dictatorship from a government supported by only 36% of those who voted, and,  becasue of the low turnout,  only some 25% of those entitled to vote, is not a successful method of running a modern democracy.