Saturday, 24 June 2017
Brexit: where will it all end?
Oxford Professor Timothy Garton Ash has a whole article devoted to this in yesterday's Guardian and it's well worth a read. Here's his somewhat dismal conclusion:
". . .my hunch is that Britain will probably end up. . .with some novel variant of Norway's European Economic Area deal, Switzerland's customised free-trade package or Turkey's membership of the customs union. It may be dressed up in Union Jack bunting, but it will effectively mean that we have second-class membership of the common market, that we must abide by rules we have no say in making, that we will continue to pay into the EU coffers, that immigration from the EU is only slightly reduced, [and] that we have to accept legally binding arrangements in which the European court of Justice still plays a significant role . . . A majority in parliament will probably swallow all this, in a very British game of muddling through."
In an article in the July edition of Prospect magazine the former Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Home Civil Service, Gus O'Donnell (a trained economist, not , happily, via Oxford's PPE, but at Warwick and Glasgow Universities) concludes:
"Even if the[Brexit] talks go well, the long term effect of Brexit will be a smaller economy than previously expected, which feeds through to lower tax revenues."
That's it: " a smaller economy," no ifs, no buts.
Spending the next two years negotiating towards this nonsense is crazy. MPs should pluck up courage, do their duty and put stop to it now.