“. . . .a world suffering from ‘global warming and environmental degradation, multiple conflicts, rising military budgets, disregard for international law and international humanitarian law, disruptions to trade, erosion of democratic governance and technological developments that are met with excitement and fear.’ ”
This quotation from a speech by Antonio de Aguiar Patriota, Brazil’s ambassador to the UK, forms the opening of a full page article by the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour in last Saturday’s paper.
It seems to be a pretty god description of the world we’re in.
Wintour’s article is headlined “Hope emerges from chaos.”
It wold be foolish to expect the situation Ambassador Patriota depicts to influence how the UK’s citizens cast their votes on Thursday. Perhaps it shouldn’t.
Many retiring and aspiring councillors and Senedd and Scottish parliamentary candidates would like their electorates to vote according to the skill with which they have or are likely to organise the functions for which their councils and devolved administrations are actually responsible for.
However this is a forlorn hope, largely because the UK’s governance is so highly centralised that the councils and devolved administrations have little real independence and are increasingly at the beck and call of Westminster and Whitehall to carry out their masters’ wishes.
So these local elections are inevitably a verdict on the performance of the present central government and an indication (however unreliable) of who might form the next one,
Therefore we need to think which of the now five seriously contending parties are likely to be in the best position to deal intelligently with the scenario Patriota describes.
On the basis of their present performances, probably none of the above.
Wintour’s argument is that the post-Cold War era of US leadership has clearly failed, that we cannot expect it to adopt a more virtuous path once Trump’s wings are clipped by Democrat congressional victories in November, and a Democrat president restores "normal service" in 2029.
The era of American dominance is over.
The sane future therefore lies in a coalition of middle-ranking powers: Germany, France, Brazil , Australia , Canada, and others, dedicated to liberal democracy and prepared to work together in a reformed United Nations reflecting present-day realities.
The UK should be part of this.
(Wintour doesn’t say this, but I would prefer the UK to abandon the pretence of playing a “leading” role: just be a willing and effective partner. That would be far more productive and less embarrassing than the past eighty years of playing Robin to America’s Batmen)
This will require both vision and optimism.
No single party has these, but in my view a combination of Liberals, Greens, the less hide-bound ranks of Labour and One-nation Tories (if there are any left) could achieve them. Tactical voters should vote for which ever of these is the most likely to win on Thursday.
This could give a signal to the parties as to the policies they should be nurturing for our General Election in 2029 (or sooner.)
