Wednesday 13 March 2019

Brexit: where now?


At last the option of revoking Article 50 has surfaced in the mainstream (rather than just on this Blog.)  Mrs May gave it as an option in her speech in the Commons  last night  night in which she acknowledged the second massive defeat of her deal.  The presenter of the BBC 1 then mentioned it on the 10pm bulletin, and it has been cited again on the news this morning.

I'm surprised that this oblivious course has taken so long to emerge as a serious possibility.

For MPs to revoke Article 50 is the simplest way to get us out of the mess they have put us in.  The other options, in which they try to further defer decisions, or thrust them on to someone else, all have complications which have received little atention.

Remember that the EU has indicated that the maximum postponement they have in mind is two months - maybe three at the most.

The option with the most steam behind it is a "People's Vote."  That would take, at an uninformed guess, at least six months to set up, and  there would be much acrimonious wrangling as to the actual question(s). they could be: May or No-deal:  May or Remain; or a three way option,  May, Leave, Remain ( and how would we count that?)

Labour's preferred option is a General Election.  That could just about fit into a two month time frame.  The problems here are threefold:

1)  Labour probably wouldn't win - the most likely outcome is another balanced parliament with the Tories as the largest party.and so the same deadlock as now:
2) Even if Labour did win a working majority, their proposals of remaining in "a", rather than "the"  customs union and single market sound like the original Brexiteer proposals of having  all the benefits of membership of the EU with none of the obligations, or "having your cake and eating it, which the EU would reject.(even if they agreed to re-open negotiations with a different government
3) Voters have a habit of deciding General Elections on issues other than the one(s) for which they were called.  Probably Labour would prefer this.

Both options sidetrack the issue of the EU Elections to be held in June.  If we haven't yet left we presumably have to take part.  Can we really cope with that, and a general Election or a "People's vote" at the same time?  Voter fatigue would probably lead to very poor turnouts and open the results to accusations of lack of legitimacy.

 The only viable option is for MPs to grasp the nettle and vote to revoke Article 50.  They have 15 days to do it.  Easy easy,  if they have the guts.

If MPs take this bold step there will, of course, be outrage, some of it synthetic, whipped up by the frustrated chief Brexiteers, and much of it perfectly legitimate, from the (I suspect very small) minority who sincerely believe that Britain as a whole would be a happier and more successful country outside the EU, and the much larger number who feel, legitimately, that the political elite have ignored their predicament for too long and so used the Referendum vote to take a swipe a the system.

There will be grief, there may even be disturbances, but we shall survive.

The treacle tins  of old used to bear the slogan "Out of the strong came forth sweetness."  If MPs can find the strength to take this boldest step we may then, freed from the burden of Brexit, have the time, energy and willl to build, along with our neighbours and within the EU, a society that really does "work for everyone"

Sweet indeed.

11 comments:

  1. "May, Leave, Remain ( and how would we count that?)"
    Simple - by AV/SV of course. 3 option on the ballot, ask voters to number in order of preference. Then whichever option come third is eliminated and the votes transferred between the continuing options.

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    1. Surly that would mean a shoe-in for the May Deal, the least unpopular option? Most Leave and Remain voters would put it as No 2, and an over-all majority for any option would be unlikely. The solution would be to have two referendums (like French presidential elections: the first to isolate the two font runners and the second to decide between them. I'd personally prefer that, but can't see our present politically exhausted culture opting for it.

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  2. Sorry, I was laughing at the thought of getting a "balanced parliament". On recent performances that seems the least likely option.

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    1. Yeah, I know. I'm just trying to avoid "Hung" parliament, with all its negative implications. As believers in PR we must get used to the idea of a parliament with no overall majority as a positive thing (as it has proved to be on so many local government councils.) I agree that under FPTP a current result is likely to be horribly distorted.

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  3. I'm beginning to think a second referendum is the only way to get the political classes to listen. Same question as last time, but this time it's made clear that if 'Leave' wins, the leave the very next day, with no deal.

    I reckon Leave would win with about 60% of the vote, just on a message of 'this time they have to listen'.

    If, on the other hand, we are kept prisoner in the EU against our will, we must devote all our energies into destroying it from the inside. Gum up the legislative works. Protest about everything. Sow dischord and disunity. Set the east against the west, the north against the south, everybody against the French.

    (I'd say 'destroy its economic competitivness by smothering its industries with regulation and protectionism' but frankly it doesn't need our help with that.)

    With a following wind, and a decent well-timed spike in the Euro currency perma-crisis to exploit, I reckon we can bring the whole thing crashing down.

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  4. Yes, as I said, there would be acrimonious debate about the questions. The current polls indicate Remain would win, but the AV referendum stared with a two to one majority in favour and then lost, so you could very will be right.I'm sorry to see you so negative about the most forward-looking, constructive and civilised political venture of the past half-century.

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    1. I wouldn't be negative about it if they weren't keeping us in against our will. But organisations that try to try to keep sovereign nations captive have no right to call themselves civilised, and deserve to burn.

      And it will.

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