Monday, 8 July 2019
Conditions for a Coup
Back in 2017, while on a waling holiday (in Wales?) Mrs May had the sudden revelation that we needed a general election. That didn't work out well for her. My own realisation, whilst on a walking holiday in the English Lake District last week, was that I, for the first time, understood why less happier lands are so often subject to military coups.
Let's take a mythical Bongo Bongo Land. It doesn't have the luxury of institutions honed to near perfection by centuries of experience, a highly educated population, an official opposition offering a viable alternative, free and regular elections, a free press and an international reputation for "fair play," fair dealing and pragmatic common sense.
Rather, in Bongo Bongo Land, the government, in the grip of a small group of extremists intent on their own enrichment, is hell bent on an action their own experts and advisers, their neighbours and almost all international organisations tell them will be detrimental to their standing, their economy and their people, especially the poorest. The official opposition is pre-occupied with its own problems and offers no alternative.
The leadership of the governing party is up for grabs and the contenders make wilder and wilder promises in order to gain the favour of the narrow elite who are entitled decide the matter. The leading contender, widely known to be "an unrepentant race-baiter, liar, philanderer and opportunist, liked least by those who know him best"* threatens to dissolve its major democratic institution, its parliament, if it attempts to hinder his purpose. The sycophantic press, in hock to the government in return for favours, applauds the leading contender and declares the judiciary, who try to impose the rule of law, to be "enemies of the people."
It is in this sort of circumstance that Bongo Bong Land's military are likely to step in to prevent such folly.
I don't expect it will happen here and I hope it won't.
But just imagine what the reaction would be if it were a left-wing government about to impose some wild Marxist-Maoist dogma and link the UK with some combination of Russia, China and Cuba.
I can't now remember what it was that the Wilson Governments of the 1960s were trying to do which so upset our establishment, but two newspaper owners, Hugh Cudlipp and Cecil King, met with Earl Mountbatten to discus Wilson's overthrow. To his credit, Mountbatten realised the meeting was treasonable and walked away.
Given the supposition of a left wing government conducting the present shenanigans, I wonder who would be meeting behind closed doors today.
There is, of course, no need for an illegitimate coup. We have a sovereign parliament and all that is needed is for this legitimate body to come to its senses, vote in the long term interest of the country rather the short term objective of keeping their comfortable jobs, revoke Article 50 and put a stop this nonsense, preferably before their summer holidays.
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We have a sovereign parliament and all that is needed is for this legitimate body to come to its senses, vote in the long term interest of the country rather the short term objective of keeping their comfortable jobs, revoke Article 50 and put a stop this nonsense, preferably before their summer holidays
ReplyDeleteBut if they did that, there'd just be another general election, and we'd elect a government which had in its manifesto that it'd just re-invoke Article 50 straight away. So why bother?
Who can predict what would happen in such an election? My own guess is that no one party would emerge with an over-all majority, but, if Labour would come off the fence, they , with the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Nationalist would be able to form a coalition for Remain.
DeleteWho can predict what would happen in such an election?
ReplyDeleteNobody, clearly, but I think 'Conservative largest party but short of an overall majority' has reasonably good odds. There'd probably also be a few Brexit party MPs (half a dozen at most, probably) but together with the DUP they could wellform a similar arrangement to this time, and of course such an arrangement would immediately have to re-invoke Article 50.
if Labour would come off the fence, they , with the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Nationalist would be able to form a coalition for Remain
That is the other possibility. But such a rainbow coalition could not possibly be stable for any length of time, could it? Especially when even withall those wildly disparate parties trying to somehow work together it would still likely have a majority in single figures; and remember it would involve a Prime Minister who even the vast majority of his own parliamentary party already voted they had no confidence in.
It might last a year; it might even last two, but I think it unlikely. So then there'd be another general election, and again, another chance to elect a government that will re-invoke Article 50.
The problem Remainers face is that the electorate wants to Leave the EU, and in a democracy, you can't ignore the wishes of the electorate for ever because they will just keep voting against you.
It seems like the attempted King coup during Wilson's tenure was down to economic circumstances, conspiracy theories, the honours system and general paranoia about the future of newspapers.
ReplyDeleteThere's an interesting blog and film about Cecil King here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/entries/1a97bb10-3299-35ea-a77e-b17fb3025c7a
Thank you John Tolson. I have read the blog and watched the film, which brings back many memories (eg of Wilson smoking his pipe and a much younger version of Tony Benn). Both together fil in a lot of gaps, and show the extent to which the "right" are prepared to go to frustrate the even moderate "left."
DeleteIf you are the John Tolson who attended Batley Grammar School in the '90s please give me a ring. I'd love to "catch up" with your doings.
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ReplyDelete