Tuesday 15 February 2022

Russia, Ukraine and the UK

 Those who want more fully to understand what is going on in the Russia/Ukraine dispute could do worse than listen to this excellent  "podcast,"

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?projector=1 

 but should take a deep breath first and be prepared to emerge mentally exhausted.

My sincere hope is that a diplomatic solution will be found (see earlier post) and that not a singe young Ukrainian  nor a singe young Russian sheds his or her blood to satisfy the egos of  posturing politicians.

It is encouraging to see that, on the surface at least, the search for a diplomatic solution is coming from the Europeans, last week from President Macron of France and today Chancellor Scholz of Germany.  Publicly US President Biden is making a more aggressive stance  which is being vigorously supported  by Prime Minister Johnson cheered on by his uncompromising Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, whilst our Defence Secretary Ben Wallace  tries to smear  the Europeans' diplomatic initiatives with " a whiff of Munich."

Mr Johnson, in public interviews, claims to be concentrating on "coordinating the Western response" and therefore hasn't the time at present to answer questions on the Downing Street parties (or even whether he has yet filled in his form). Clearly for him the crisis is a godsend to to give him an excuse for some  international grandstanding which may distract  attention from his domestic shambles.

Whatever the outcome of the present crisis, I think it will be noted as a clear illustration that, having left the EU, Britain's influence on world affairs has greatly diminished.  It is fairly certain that, whatever President Biden decides to do, Britain will follow like a tame lapdog.  How much better to be at the heart of the European diplomatic initiatives along with the French and the Germans.

President Biden has eight years of diplomatic experience in high office.  There is every reason to hope that, behind his strong words, he too is seeking a diplomatic solution,( as J F Kennedy did in the Cuban Crisis, by agreeing to withdraw nuclear missile based in Turkey and pointing  at Moscow, if Khrushchev  turned away  from installing Soviet missiles in Cuba.)

However, as we discovered with Prime Minster Anthony Eden's ill-fated  invasion of Suez in 1956, years of experience as No 2 does not guarantee  balanced decisions when in the top job.

 Fingers crossed.

9 comments:

  1. I think it will be noted as a clear illustration that, having left the EU, Britain's influence on world affairs has greatly diminished. […] How much better to be at the heart of the European diplomatic initiatives along with the French and the Germans.

    Germany?! Remind me again how many anti-tank weapons Germany has sent to Ukraine?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I wrote: "diplomatic initiatives,) - not macho military gestures.

      Delete
    2. diplomatic initiatives

      Diplomatic initiatives mean less than nothing without credible threats of force to back them up.

      Sic vis pacem, para bellum

      Delete
    3. As Nigel Hunter points out (below) monetary sanctions are much more likely to have an effect than are a few tanks. Ben Wallace has been explicit that we are not going to man (person? crew?) them ourselves.

      Delete
    4. As Nigel Hunter points out (below) monetary sanctions are much more likely to have an effect than are a few tanks.

      Both are necessary.

      Ben Wallace has been explicit that we are not going to man (person? crew?) them ourselves.

      'Man' or 'crew' are okay, I think; 'person' just sounds silly.

      Obviously we won't respond to an attack on a non-NATO member the way we would to an attack on a NATO member; what would be the point of anyone joining NATO if they could enjoy the protections without incurring the obligations?

      But that doesn't mean we can't supply aid to help a sovereign nation that finds itself threatened by a belligerent neighbour.

      Delete
  2. Germany is not keen to do much after WW2 blackened its reputation.
    i hear that Putin is pulling some troops out.Has he got want he wanted,recognition on the world stage?How about inviting him into NATO?

    This removal of troops. Could he also be worried that actions in the UK to prevent money laundering etc would hit him where it hurts,in his wallet? Johnson should worry about the corruption in his party and his dependence on Russian money for as the crisis declines (nobody wants war)that corruption will still be around not to mention partygate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Germany is not keen to do much after WW2 blackened its reputation.

      Germany is not keen to do much after Angela Merkel's boneheaded decision to shut down its nuclear programme. It still staggers me that she was celebrated as she retired rather than having to go in disgrace after that, possibly the single biggest strategic blunder in Europe this century.

      Delete
  3. Whatever influence the UK may have had is probably due more to the money laundered to London than any military concerns. That London has become a "world class" money-laundering centre is a disgrace. and, along with party funding, needs to be tackled ruthlessly.

    ReplyDelete
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