Friday 11 March 2022

Ukarine two + weeks on

 The war in Ukraine has now lasted more than twice as long as most pundits predicted.  Inevitably the "fog of war" has descended and it is difficult to discern any actual facts  from the many claims and counterclaims.  What is sadly indisputable  is that hundreds if not thousands of largely young soldiers, plus many  civilians, some of them children, have already been killed, others maimed, and thousands of families have fled their homes to seek asylum elsewhere.  The only pleasing fact in this scenario is that the Ukrainian railways offer free travel to the refugees.  I wonder if, in similar circumstances  that would happen here.

Nothing I've read or heard causes me to change the views expressed in the two previous posts: that we have brought this on ourselves by failing to respect Russia's legitimate "pride" and prematurelyalmost gloatingly, offering NATO and EU membership to Russia's former satellite states.  

There are indeed those who claim that, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in a "secret treaty," Russia agreed to withdraw Soviet  tanks from East Germany on condition that NATO did not move into the former Soviet "sphere of influence."  Others deny this.    My own view is that if such a deal was not made it should have been.

 Be that as it may, now is the time for the diplomats to get round a table and find a compromise which will save face on both sides.  We are told that Russia has made an offer: that the invaders will withdraw  if Ukraine agrees not to join NATO, and cedes the Crimea and the Donbas to Russia. 

The Ukrainian government, naturally, declares this to be totally unacceptable.

Maybe, but it is at least a starting point for discussion, and that is what diplomats are for and how international disputes should be resolved in our 21st century.  

Or have we learned nothing from the horrors of the 20th?

The "West's" reaction to the Russian proposal supports that of the Ukrainian  government:  it is unacceptable to expect a sovereign (how damaging that word has come to be) state to accept such a condition.

But once upon a time, and not all that long ago,  there was a sovereign state called Cuba with a leader if not exactly democratically elected, at least appointed with popular acclaim.  That sovereign state decided that it would happily offer itself as a base for Soviet missiles  to point at the US, rather as the sovereign UK had and continues to offer itself as a base for US missiles pointing at Russia.

But what was sauce for the goose was not sauce for the gander, sovereign Cuba was firmly told that such a deal was not acceptable, and the face saving solution was that the Soviet  ships carrying the missiles would turn round on condition that the US  removed  its missiles pointing at Russia from Turkey.

I find it painfully tragic that young Russian soldiers and young Ukrainian soldiers should be required to shoot at, maim and kill each other, and families  flee their homes, becasue  the adults in charge of their countries can't get together and hammer out a civilised solution.

25 comments:

  1. I find it painfully tragic that young Russian soldiers and young Ukrainian soldiers should be required to shoot at, maim and kill each other, and families flee their homes, becasue the adults in charge of their countries can't get together and hammer out a civilised solution.

    Are you seriously suggesting that the Ukrainian President is as much to blame for the deaths of this unprovoked war of aggression as Putin?

    I suggest you try going to the streets of Kiev and putting that theory to the brave young Ukrainians fighting for their nation, and see whether they agree with you.

    Unlike you, they seem to realise that there are things worth fighting for.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is deep water we’re getting in to. I’m not sure any cause is so important that it justifies the killing of another human being. As I think I pointed out in an earlier exchange, the First World War poets exposed as “that old lie” the maxim that “It is a sweet and noble thing to die for your country.” Surely there are higher values than affection for the patch of land on which you happened ed to be born or have married into? Most Russians and most Ukrainians belong to the Orthodox Christian Church. That should be a uniting factor which transcends nationality. (not, I admit, that it has ever done so in Europe or anywhere else.)

      Ideally we should recognise and respect each other as fellow human beings. I suspect we have to wait for an invasion of aliens from another planet for that to happen.

      I am not arguing that Putin and the Ukrainian president are equally responsible for the carnage. In fact he, poor man, and the Ukrainians, are merely “piggy in the middle” and proxies for a war between Russian and the “Democratic West.” It is President Biden, with Josep Borrell for the EU and Jens Stoltenberg for NATO, (with perhaps Mr Johnson shouting odds from the side-lines) who need to get together with Putin and Zelenskyy or their representatives to hammer out a compromise.

      Eventually they will, and preferably before many more lives are uselessly lost

      Delete
    2. I’m not sure any cause is so important that it justifies the killing of another human being.

      The cause of self-defence, or defence of another against an unprovoked attack, obviously does. Otherwise you're just saying that the bullies and the tyrants of the world, who are prepared to kill, can have anything they want.

      I mean, you must agree, for example, that a policewoman would be justified in shooting dead someone who is about to murder an innocent victim, if there was no other way to stop him?

      Surely there are higher values than affection for the patch of land on which you happeneded to be born or have married into?

      Of course there are; but just because there are still higher values, it doesn't follow that patriotism is not among the highest. You should read Chesterton on the subject. There's a nice digest of his writings (though of course you should read them in their original settings) here: https://www.patheos.com/blogs/geneveith/2018/07/chesterton-on-the-virtue-of-patriotism/

      Most Russians and most Ukrainians belong to the Orthodox Christian Church. That should be a uniting factor which transcends nationality. (not, I admit, that it has ever done so in Europe or anywhere else.)

      Oh for goodness' sake. Do a little bit of research. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church was declared autocephalous by the Patriarch of Constantinople, something which has not been accepted by the Russian Orthodox Church, which therefore wants to destroy utterly the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. The Russian Patriarch has declared his support for Putin's war.

      Ideally we should recognise and respect each other as fellow human beings.

      Yes but what about in the real world? You're in danger of sounding like Ed Davey calling for the UN to declare a 'military exclusion zone' around nuclear power plants, as if Putin would take the slightest notice of such a thing.


      It is President Biden, with Josep Borrell for the EU and Jens Stoltenberg for NATO, (with perhaps Mr Johnson shouting odds from the side-lines) who need to get together with Putin and Zelenskyy or their representatives to hammer out a compromise.

      And then dictate from on high to the Ukrainians what their country will and will not be allowed to do? If that happens, and if we try to enforce our diktat with force, as will be the only way to make them comply, the proud people of Ukraine will turn their guns on the West, and I for one will support them in doing so, for we will have made ourselves no better than Putin. We will have repeated our despicable, immoral betrayal at Yalta.

      Delete
    3. I don't think anyone's likely to put it better than this:

      'Russia has argued it is a great power and as a great power it should be allowed to systematically destroy its neighbours. Obviously this can now only be resolved by making it unambiguously clear Russia is not and will not be a great power'

      https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1503054299718623232

      Delete
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  2. What was the point of being free of Russian rule if you cannot live your life as you wish and form alliances with like minded people. Russia is a huge land mass with a relatively small population which acquired its land by invading other states and annexing them over many years. It has normally been ruled by ruthless tyrants apart from Kerensky and Gorbachov neither of whom lasted very long because the people or those who held power did not like democratic government and preferred tyrants of increasing wickedness. We need to protect our freedom to live as we wish and not become subject to this ghastly country and this will mean spending money on defence and never being dependent on it for any vital commodity. The West has done bad things but mostly in response to the actions of its enemies such as religious extremists and Saddam Hussein, North Korea etc.

    ReplyDelete
  3. True the fates of Russia and Ukraine, along with Georgia and other parts of the former Soviet Empire, have been intertwined for years. That is why Putin wants to bolster his prestige by “getting them back” and the former satellites wish to avoid that. The half-way stage of neutral “buffer states” was unfortunately missed after 1989. Perhaps something like this is at least a starting point for a compromise to stop the present war.

    No state is entirely independent. The UK, for example, in practice if not in law, has acted as a vassal state of the US for most of the period since 1945. Our attempt to gain more independence by pooling part of our sovereignty with the EU has now been rejected. Even so, we shall have to make compromises to live with them both, along with India, China Brazil and the rest of the world

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The UK, for example, in practice if not in law, has acted as a vassal state of the US for most of the period since 1945

      This simply isn't true. The UK has often acted in that period directly against the express wishes of the USA. Sometimes that's ended badly for us (Suez) and sometimes well (the Falklands) but it's absolutely not true that the UK is merely a client state of the USA.

      What is true is that the interests of the US and the UK often coincide. But that is to be expected of states which are fundamentally similar in outlook, more so than most other pairs of states. The only other states which the UK is even nearly as similar to — Canada and Australia — also often act in concert with us, again due to similarities of interests rather than any one dictating the behaviour of the others.

      Delete
  4. You impute to me claims I haven't made. I didn't write that the UK has "always" followed the US, but that we have for "most of the time." Yes, we acted independently in Suez and the Falklands, and neither of those ended well: Suez in disgrace and the Falklands with 255 UK military deaths and more than twice that number of Argentinians, yet the problem still remains. Incidentally I think the "garrison" had the good sense to surrender at the initial invasion rather than die for the (which?) country.

    You don't mention the most effective piece of independent action, or rather non-action: Harold Wilson's refusal to get invoked in the Vietnam war.

    I hear on the news today that the diplomatic talks are making some progress. I sincerely hope so, befroe yet more people are kiled, maimed or made honeless.

    ReplyDelete
  5. You impute to me claims I haven't made. I didn't write that the UK has "always" followed the US, but that we have for "most of the time."

    No; what you wrote was that '[t]he UK […] has acted as a vassal state of the US for most of the period since 1945'.

    If we have most of the time acted with the Yanks over that time, it has been because our interests have, most of the time, coincided. Not because we are a 'vassal state' who have to do as we are told; but because, as a similar people with similar principles and ideals who see the world in a similar way, it is hardly surprising that we will come, most of the time (though not all the time) to similar conclusions about what needs to be done.

    And of course, for most of that time — forty-six years out of the seventy-seven — we shared an enemy in the pure evil of Communism, that was destroying the lives of hundreds of millions of suffering innocents in Russia, Ukraine, Latvia, Poland, Czechoslovakia and other states, and we had to act together or it would have destrotyed your life and mine too, as well as those of all our children.

    Falklands with 255 UK military deaths and more than twice that number of Argentinians, yet the problem still remains.

    The 'problem' doesn't remain in the Falklands: the Argentinians know they have no chance of seizing the islands militarily, so there is no longer any problem.

    I hear on the news today that the diplomatic talks are making some progress. I sincerely hope so, befroe yet more people are kiled, maimed or made honeless.

    We all do; but that will depend entirely on whether Putin realises the game is up and backs down. If not, well, he may well still win the initial war; but he will never conquer the Ukrainian people, who will wage a brave resistance campaign against their occupiers that will make the country ungovernable. It make take years, but Ukraine will be free.

    But the, I suppose you'd tell them that they are stupid for resisting, and that they should accept their new rulers and make the best of the terms dictated to them.

    I wonder, do you think the French who resisted the Nazis in the second world war were stupid as well? Do you think they, like the Falklands garrison, should have surrendered at the Nazis' initial invasion, rather than dying for France?

    (For that matter, do you think we British were stupid for enduring the Blitz, and that we should instead have surrendered without a fight? After all, many lives that were lost to the German bombers would have been saved if we had).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You've got it.

      I agree with you that:

      We all do; but that will depend entirely on whether Putin realises the game is up and backs down. If not, well, he may well still win the initial war; but he will never conquer the Ukrainian people, who will wage a brave resistance campaign against their occupiers that will make the country ungovernable. It make take years, but Ukraine will be free."

      This is what will happen. Without some compromise agreement the Russians are bound to win in the short run (though this is longer than Putin expected) but in the long run the "province" will become ungovernable.

      So, by agreeing to a compromise as soon as possible, the Ukrainians will save lives (on both sides, and both are important)and if the compromise is unacceptable the they can continue their struggle by violent guerrilla methods or passive non-cooperation until the Russians get fed up and withdraw. This is more or less what the French (or most of them) did in the Second World War. The UK didn't need to because, thanks to the Channel, we were not invaded.

      Delete
    2. So, by agreeing to a compromise as soon as possible, the Ukrainians will save lives (on both sides, and both are important)and if the compromise is unacceptable the they can continue their struggle by violent guerrilla methods or passive non-cooperation until the Russians get fed up and withdraw.

      You've forgotten one thing: the effect on Ukrainian morale of such a compromise. If they are to be able to sustain a guerrilla campaign against an occupying force, then they need a vision to hold onto of a Ukraine whole and free. Nobody's going to fight and quite possibly die conducting resistance operations for a country that sued for a compromise; they might well fight and die for a country that fought tooth and nail, that never even considered surrender. It's Henry V who inspires men to summon up the courage of the tiger and close the wall up with their dead, not some pettyfogging accountant haggling over terms.

      It seems clear that this is the Ukrainian President's strategy: to create heroes, myths and martyrs to sustain Ukrainian morale through the possibly decades to come.

      So no, your strategy wouldn't work. Or at least it has a much smaller chance of working than resisting to the bitter end.

      Delete
  6. But the French resistance fought in the Second World War, in spit of the capitulation and the collaborating Vichy government.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But the French resistance fought in the Second World War, in spit of the capitulation and the collaborating Vichy government

      They didn't fight for Vichy, though. They fought for de Gaulle, who was recognised as the legitimate government by ever nation other than the occupiers.

      Who in this situation do you suggest should play de Gaulle, leading a government in exile while we and the other nations of the world refuse to recognise whatever puppet regime Putin installs?

      It can't really be the current Ukrainian president, as part of his whole brand is refusal to retreat; to run away at this point would entirely destroy his personal authority.

      Delete
  7. I suspect most of the Resistance members were fighting for France rather than a particular leader. Many were communists and wouldn't be particularly devoted to de Gaulle.

    I'm pretty sure that , in similar circumstances, Ukrainians would resist an occupation to gain freedom for their country

    ReplyDelete
  8. So it seems like the Russian leadership is now trying to pretend that they were only ever interested in annexing the Donbas region, presumably as a step towards offering a peace deal in which, in return for them withdrawing from the rest of the country, this region is excised from Ukraine to become a part of Russia (either de jure or de facto as an 'independent' republic ruled from Moscow).

    You, I assume, based on what you've written above, would say that the Ukrainians should take this deal if offered; thus sending the message out to Putin, and to every other dictator and tyrant in the world, that in future if you want to take control of your neighbour you should go ahead and invade: if you're lucky you might win and just get the whole of their country to add to your own, but even if things don't go your way and they turn out to be a tougher morsel to digest than you anticipated, you will still end up with a block of extra territory to add onto your empire.

    After all, if there's possible no downside to launching an invasion — no way you could ever end up in a worse position than you started, or even back in the exact same position — why would you ever choose not to do it?

    ReplyDelete
  9. The important thing, for the moment, is to stop the butchery. If the terms are unacceptable to the Ukrainian population they will continue to resist using non-cooperative, active or violent techniques. In the end Russia will be forced to withdraw,as the US/UK++ have been forced to withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan

    ReplyDelete
  10. The important thing, for the moment, is to stop the butchery.

    You are wrong. The important thing is that Russia is made to suffer for launching an unprovoked war of aggression against its neighbour, because if that doesn't happen, Russia will do it again, and other countries, like China, will do it too.

    You're like someone who, when someone is taken hostage, says we should just pay the ransom because 'the important thing, for the moment, is to get them back to their family' — and never mind that all you're doing is encouraging the kidnappers to take more hostages in the future.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I stand by my assertion that the important thing is to stop the butchery. Your approach is akin to "Squeez(ing0 Germany until the pips squeak" after the First World War, which actually sowed the seeds of the Second (as Keynes pointed out). A similar failure to treat the Russian people with respect at the end of the cold war has led to this confrontation. Happily there are signs that compromise is at least being talked about. As Simon Jenkins points out in today's Guardian, the Russians must be provided with a "bridge" along which they can "retreat with dignity." Then,in their own time, they will get rid of Putin and maybe replace him with someone or something more democratically accountable.

      Delete
  11. Your approach is akin to "Squeez(ing0 Germany until the pips squeak" after the First World War, which actually sowed the seeds of the Second (as Keynes pointed out).

    No, what allowed the second world war to happen was that Germany was allowed to rearm, in direct contravention of the peace terms, which were not enforced; and meanwhile the Allies allowed their own militaries to atrophy, with the result that Germany thought it was in with a chance of winning a second war.

    If the limits on Germany forces had been strictly enforced and if the Allies, including Britain, had maintained a state of readiness instead of being so quick to cash in a peace dividend and buy into the delusion that they had fought 'the war to end war', then the second world war would not have happened — or, if it had happened, would have been much shorted as Germany would have been defeated much more quickly.

    As Simon Jenkins points out in today's Guardian, the Russians must be provided with a "bridge" along which they can "retreat with dignity."

    No; they absolutely must not be allowed any kind of retreat with any kind of dignity. Because if that happens, then they will just retreat back over whatever bridge they are provided, lick their wounds, build up their forces, and try again. Absolutely they must not be allowed to retain any part of mainland Ukraine, because if they do then they will simply start building up their forces there and from that staging post launch another attack on Kiev in five or ten years.

    They must be routed and driven out with their tail between their legs, and then sanctions (real sanctions, ie, we must stop buying their oil) must be maintained until they agree to reduce their conventional forces to a token amount and their nuclear arsenal to, say, no more than the size of that of the UK or France. Russia — a runt of a country with an economy the size of Holland's, a banana republic than we only care about because it has rockets, must be hobbled so that it can never again threaten the world with nuclear armageddon.

    You seem to have this bizarre idea that wars are prevented by being nice to people. Do you also think that the way to deal with bullies is to negotiate a respectful settlement whereby they get half your lunch money?

    ReplyDelete
  12. I think your approach can best be described as "vindictive." It is typical of what has been practised in history so far and on of the reasons why wars have dominated most of it.

    I stand by the attitude you mock in your final paragraph:I certainly believe we should try to resect other people, or at least understand them, whatever the circumstances. You might call it empathy, or even "wokeness."

    I haven't much experience of bullying, either as a victim or (i hope) as a perpetrator. But I do remember, years ago on "The Archers" that somebody's child was being bullied at school. The matter was reported to the teachers, the "experts" moved in, the bullying stopped and the two protagonists became firm friends.
    It can be much the same with countries. Germany was the enemy until 1945. Instead of squeezing it "until the pips squeeze" this time help in the form of Marshall Aid was heaped upon it, and now we're best buddies. QED

    I can see we are not going to agree, so I'll make this my final comment on this topic. Feel free to have the last world if you wish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think your approach can best be described as "vindictive."

      Not vindictive: realistic. The only thing in history that has ever successfully avoided a war is making sure any potential aggressor knows that the cost of waging war would be more than they are willing to bear. Hippy 'make love not war' sentiments have never done it.

      That's why the period since the second world war has been, by historical standards, so amazingly peaceful: the existence of nuclear weapons, and mutually assured destruction, makes that cost enough to deter even the most determined aggressor state.

      Naïve idealism of the 'wouldn't it be nice if we could all understand each other and get along' variety has no place in international relations; it just ends up with you occupied by someone who was more pragmatic.

      Sic vis pacem, para bellum

      But I do remember, years ago on "The Archers" that somebody's child was being bullied at school. The matter was reported to the teachers, the "experts" moved in, the bullying stopped and the two protagonists became firm friends.

      Yes, fiction can work that way, if the writers want. Real life, not so much.

      Germany was the enemy until 1945. Instead of squeezing it "until the pips squeeze" this time help in the form of Marshall Aid was heaped upon it, and now we're best buddies. QED

      Germany's ability to make war was totally destroyed in the second world war and even now, seventy years later, it can't even mount an exercise without having to substitute broom handles for rifles. If that's the state you suggest we leave Russia in — totally unable to threaten even its nearest neighbours, let alone anyone farther off, for decades — than I can only say for once I totally agree with you.

      Delete
    2. I mean, are you really suggesting that we should have given Herr Hitler a "bridge" along which he could "retreat with dignity"? Because you seem to be suggesting that with your analogy of Germany at the end of the second world war. But that can't really be what you mean, can it? Can it?

      Delete
    3. I recommend reading https://unherd.com/thepost/liberal-feminists-dont-understand-war/

      Delete
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