Friday 27 January 2023

Holocaust Memorial Day 2023

From Primo Levi's "The Truce." After his abandonment in the concentration camp, accompanied by "a Greek," and walking towards Cracow, Levi spends the night in a barracks "requisitioned by the Russians and full of Italian soldiers." Levi writes: [The Greek] told curious stories about the war; of how after the Germans had broken through the front he had found himself with six of his men ransacking the first floor of a bombed and abandoned villa, searching for provisions; he had heard suspicious noises on the floor below, had cautiously climbed down the stairs with his sten gun at the ready, and had met an Italian sergeant who, with six soldiers, was doing exactly the same thing on the ground floor. The Italian in turn had levelled his gun but the Greek had pointed out that in those conditions a gun fight would have been particularly stupid, that they all found themselves, Greeks and Italians, in the same boat and that he did not see why they should not make a small separate and local peace and continue their researches in their respective occupied territories - to which proposal the Italian had rapidly agreed." Levi continues: "For me too he was a revelation. I knew that he was nothing but a rogue, a merchant, expert in deceit and lacking in scruples, selfish and cold; yet I felt blossom out in him, encouraged by the sympathy of the audience, a warmth, an unsuspected humanity, singular but genuine, rich with promise." I suspect that something has gone slightly awry in the translation with that "blossom out" but I dearly wish some similar humanity could prevail between the unfortunate young conscripts of Russia and Ukraine, and between the politicians fuelling the conflict. I'm not convinced that the promise of Western tanks will make such an outbreak of humanity more likely or happen any sooner

15 comments:

  1. I'm not convinced that the promise of Western tanks will make such an outbreak of humanity more likely or happen any sooner

    What would you say the chances of Mr Putin having an outbreak of humanity and withdrawing his forces from Ukrainian territory would be, absent the arrival of Western tanks? Zero? Less than zero?

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    1. I don't know. It depends on what is going on behind the scenes that I'm not aware of. i hope something is. As an analogy, we're now told that the demand for "unconditional surrender" by the Germans probably prolonged the Second World War. The aim of fighting Russia to complete capitulation could have a similar effect here. And it is not "our boys" (to quote Mrs Thatcher) who are paying the rice, but young Russian and Ukrainian conscripts, along with civilians and children.

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    2. As an analogy, we're now told that the demand for "unconditional surrender" by the Germans probably prolonged the Second World War.

      Just to be clear here — you’re saying that you think the Allies should have negotiated a peace deal with Hitler, one which presumably would have left the Nazis in control of Germany (because clearly Hitler would not have agreed to any peace which involved him giving up power)?

      I just want to be absolutely clear that that is what you’re saying. That you think the second world war should have ended with Germany still under Nazi rule.

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  2. The argument is that, had the Allies let it be known that a negotiated peace was possible if the Germans got rid of Hitler, then where would have been more support for the plots against him.

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    1. The argument is that, had the Allies let it be known that a negotiated peace was possible if the Germans got rid of Hitler, then where would have been more support for the plots against him.

      What? Now you're making no sense whatsoever. Hitler was the ruler of Germany; if he had been, say, assassinated, then how could the Allies have negotiated a peace? Who in Germany would have had the authority to negotiate? It's not like Hitler had a designated successor; like most dictators, he liked to keep his underlings at each other's throats, so his death would have sparked a power struggle, and quite possibly a splintering with different bits of the Wermacht following different people's orders. It probably would have been a good thing in that it would have led to Germany's quicker military collapse and a quicker end to the war, but a negotiated peace it would not have made possible.

      Plus, wasn't going for a negotiated peace the problem at the end of the first world war, that led to the second? If the Allies had pushed on in 1918 to Berlin, totally destroyed Germany's ability to make war, and occupied it, do you think that Hitler would have been able to re-arm in the 1930s? Doubtful. The lesson of the end of the first world war is that negotiated peaces never last, they just store up problems for the future.

      Anyway leaving that madness to the side, what does this mean you're saying about the invasion of Ukraine — you think that if Ukraine lets it be known that they are open to a negotiated peace, then there's a chance that there will be a plot against Putin? I can barely begin to enumerate the insanities there. For a start, you do realise that if Putin is removed, then his replacement will almost certainly be be hawkish and internally repressive than he is? Certainly there is less than zero chance of Putin being replaced by someone who will transform Russia into a democracy that seeks to live at peace with its neighbours.

      But more to the point we know what Ukraine would want in any negotiated peace: all its territory back. There's nothing stopping Putin offering that right now, except his need for something he can sell to his population as a win. And short of that, there is no incentive for Ukraine to accept any 'negotiated' peace, because they know, we know, you know, that Putin will not regard any such concessions as final; he will just use the pause to build up his forces again and then launch another assault, just like he used the yeas after the Minsk agreement (presumably you think that was some kind of masterclass in statecraft?) to build up his forces before last year's assault.

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    2. Neither of us knows, do we. I just hope that, behind the scenes, someone (probably the US) is signalling to Russian dissidents that, if they reject Putin's belligerence a deal which will not humiliate Russia is possible.

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    3. I just hope that, behind the scenes, someone (probably the US) is signalling to Russian dissidents that, if they reject Putin's belligerence a deal which will not humiliate Russia is possible.

      Which 'Russian dissidents' would those be? The ones in Russian jails? The ones Putin has had killed?

      Russia is not going to become a democracy. If Putin's rule does not survive his idiotic war — which is certainly possible, if not probable — then he will be replaced by an even more authoritarian, even more repressive, even more anti-Western regime, and the Russian people will be the ones who suffer the consequences most.

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    4. Anyway, I was just listening to someone who points out, very cogently, that the strategic key to all this is Crimea. As long as Russia holds Crimea, Ukraine can't be secure, because Putin will just wait, mass forces there, and then launch another attack at a later time of his choosing. So the absolute minimum Ukraine can accept in a negotiated settlement is Russia ceding control of Crimea; otherwise it has to take Crimea by force. But Crimea must end up in Ukraine's hands, and until Putin is ready to accept that, there's no point in even starting negotiations.

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  3. We just don't know do we. I seems to me that making the Crimea Ukrainian and then offering NATO membership to Ukraine is like waving a red rag to a bull. Maybe it could become a "neutral area" under UN supervision?

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    1. We just don't know do we. I seems to me that making the Crimea Ukrainian

      What an odd way to put it, ‘making the Crimea Ukrainian’. Crimea is part of Ukraine. It has been under illegal Russian military occupation since 2014. What Ukraine needs is to reassert its own control over what is still its own territory. There’s no ‘making the Crimea Ukrainian’ about it.

      and then offering NATO membership to Ukraine

      NATO membership isn’t ‘offered’ to anyone; countries have to apply and there’s no guarantee that any country which does apply will be accepted (see the fact that Turkey is threatening to block Sweden’s application).

      But if a sovereign Ukraine were to decide to apply for membership, that would be entirely up to it, wouldn’t it? You surely don’t accept the Russian ‘near abroad’ doctrine that countries bordering Russia aren’t allowed to have a foreign policy without getting Moscow’s consent first?

      is like waving a red rag to a bull.

      And unsure what you mean here. That Russia wouldn’t like it? Well, sure. We all have to learn to live with things we don’t like.

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    2. The status of Crimea is by no means as straight forward as you imply, as I'm sure you're well aware. Like many parts of continental Europe it has had a chequered history. Catherine the Great annexed it to Russia in 1783, it was part of the Soviet Union and the base for their Black Sea fleet, and the majority of its population are ethnic Russians. It is not suspiring that Putin' wants it back, and probably wishes it had never been "let go," but rather retained , as were Britain's "sovereign bases" were when Cyprus became independent. Its future is almost certain to become a bargaining chip as and when the compromises to end the war are negotiated.

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    3. The status of Crimea is by no means as straight forward as you imply, as I'm sure you're well aware.

      It's pretty straightforward. It has been part of Ukraine since the dissolution of the USSR; it is currently illegally occupied by Russia.

      If the residents of Crimea wanted to join Russia, they could have gone about it in the usual peaceful way by forming a nationalist movement, getting elected, etc etc. See, for example, Quebec. Or Scotland for that matter. There is absolutely no excuse for militarily annexing part of a neighbouring sovereign state, whatever the history.

      Or perhaps you think that it would be okay for the UK to invade and occupy, say, Leinster? Or Normandy? Historically they probably have as much claim to either as Russia does to Crimea.

      Its future is almost certain to become a bargaining chip as and when the compromises to end the war are negotiated.

      That's possible. Though it's hard to imagine what possible concessions Putin could offer which would lead Ukraine to think they were getting a good deal by handing it over. Do you have any idea what Putin could possibly offer in return for Crimea, that the Ukrainians would accept?

      (As for the 'ethnic Russians' idea… I am in the middle of reading Robert Conquest's Harvest of Sorrow. You might find it illuminating.)

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  4. You're right about the current status of the Crimea having been part of Ukraine since the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, but that hardly has the historic resonance as having been annexed by Catherine the Great in 1783. These things matter if you're born and bred there. I'll leave it at that as I know we shan't find common ground. You continue fomenting War-War and I'll continue to struggle to find a solution by Jaw Jaw.

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    1. You continue fomenting War-War

      I think you’ll find the only person who formented ‘war-war’, and the only person with the power to bring about peace, is Mr Putin.

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