Friday, 31 January 2025

Growth?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The Labour Government’s stumbling start can be excused by lack of experience, or nativity.  Why on earth announce the perfectly justifiable ending of the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners as a "one off" so that the hostile media can heap opprobrium on it, rather an mix it in with plenty of other distractions in the budget?  Why allow the purpose of the abolition of inheritance tax on land, to stop a convenient means of tax avoidance the rich, to be obscured by not inserting an "active farmer" clause to show that genuine farmers would be able to keep their farms intact?

 Surely they will hone their perception management skills soon.

 However, Sir Keir Starmer’s "measurable milestone "of "the highest sustained growth in the G7,” announced last December, and Rachel Reeves's somewhat desperate emphasis on growth, growth,  growth . . . in her speech earlier this week show that the Labour Party is aiming to move in a profoundly mistaken direction. 

The relevant literature  is well entrenched.

It is over half a century ago (1972) that the Club of Rome published ""The Limits to Growth" pointing out that the planet's resources were not infinite, and not all the world could continue to grow at the current pace for ever. 

More recently Kate Raworth has illustrated the predicament with the concept of "Do-nut Economics," (2017)  Economies in the empty middle of the ring need to grow to reach the inner part of the do-nut ring in order to enable their citizens to enjoy a minimally decent quality of life.  For those economies on the other edge of the do-nut, further growth will damage the planet and exhaust scarce resources without really improving their people’s quality of life.

My favourite title is Trebeck and Williams’s " The Economics of Arrival." (2019)  We in the developed world have made it. We have arrived.  We are here.  We have not just defeated  "chill penury" but have enough material wealth  for all of us to live exceptionally comfortable and fulfilling lives.  There is no need for further growth: all we need do is share what we have more equitably.

The Financial Times summarises Daniel Susskind's "Growth: a Reckoning" ( 2024) as follows:

"Over the past two centuries, economic growth has freed billions from poverty and made our lives far healthier and longer. As a result, the unfettered pursuit of growth defines economic life around the world. Yet this prosperity has come at an enormous price: deepening inequalities, destabilizing technologies, environmental destruction and climate change."

M/s Reeves claims a high level of economic literacy and experience.  She must know this.   Other members of her team know this.  The Treasury officials know this.  Umpteen MPs of all parties know this.  The freak weather experiences in numerous parts of the world demonstrate that the third sentence of the summary is not fantasy: it is happening.

So, to take one of M/s Reeves's most striking proposals, where does a third runway at Heathrow fit into this scenario?

Where is sustainability in Labour's economic thinking? What I expected from a Labour government, (preferably with an injection of Liberal Democrat input) are active measures for us all to share fully in the prosperity we already have: not make ourselves miserable desperately chasing after a goal which we don’t realise we've already reached.

 

 


 


Monday, 27 January 2025

Holocaust + +

 

 

 For the past ten years or more I have tried to "honour" Holocaust Memorial Day on this blog, mostly with an extract from Primo Levi's records of his experiences, "Is this a Man.?" and "Truce."  This year being the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, by the Red army, there is so much media interest that a modest reference here to the details of the atrocity would be superfluous. 

I gather from one programme  on BBC Radio that Levi found it difficult in the early years after the War to find a publisher: people preferred something more noble or optimistic - in the UK details of derring-do such as "The Wooden Horse " and the "Dam Busters."  It was not until the 1960s that interest grew in the darker sides of the conflict.

In another  programme I heard an interview with one of the few remaining Auschwitz survivors.  I didn't catch his name but he was 92 years old so presumably born in or about 1932 (five years before me) and would have been aged about seven when the war began and 13 or so when he was liberated.  He had an older brother and admitted that their relationship included fierce arguments typical of brothers as well as mutual protection. He was one of the survivors taken to Windermere and had a successful career in the UK.  

The interview concluded with his saying that the cycle of inhumanity is returning again.  When asked who were the current victims I expected him to suggest refugees and migrants drowning while trying to cross the Channel, "illegal" residents in Trump's America, persecuted dissidents in Myanmar, Uyghurs in China . . .

 But no.  It was Jews, the resurgence of anti-Semitism.

Frankly , given the relentless slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza for the past  fifteen months, and  the transfer of terror to the West Bank now that there's a (temporary?) pause in Gaza, I am not surprised.

Yes I know that there are thousands of Jews around the world  who are as horrified by the Israeli government's actions as the rest of us, and not all those who live in Israel support what is done in their name.  But the tarring of the brush takes hold and, in this age of false news and misinformation, becomes even more virulent.

The trick of the populists the world over, rather than to offer solutions to undoubted problem, is to identify and blame "the other."

 We should retaliate with moments of light, as the brave episcopalian bishop, the Rt Rev'd Mariann Edgar Budde did at  the US service of "Thanksgiving" (!) for the transfer of power to Donald Trump.

“I ask you to have mercy, Mr President,” she said from the pulpit at the National Cathedral prayer service for the inauguration, “on those in our communities whose children fear that their parents will be taken away. And that you help those who are fleeing war zones and persecution in their own lands to find compassion and welcome here. Our God teaches us that we are to be merciful to the stranger, for we were all once strangers in this land.”

 There is no "other"  Only "people like us.".

Friday, 24 January 2025

Cringeworthy UK

I think our present predicament is aptly summarised by this letter, from a  Patrick Owen of Powys, in the Guardian on Wednesday (22nd January.)

"The US has inaugurated a president who has been charged  with multiple crimes and is unfit in every respect  to hold public office.  The UK prime minister has warmly congratulated him with the hope of renewing  the US/UK special relationship and working together to defend the world from tyranny.  It is unsurprising  that the worst of British public life flocked to [the Inauguration.]   Trump can be judged by the company he keeps.  They are birds of a feather."

Monday, 13 January 2025

How to lose weight and keep it lost.

 


January has produced the annual bout of media chatter about New Year Resolutions, with prominent among them this year, losing weight by injecting  drugs, which if bought privately cost from £139 to £299 pcm according to a quick Google search.  According to a BBC panorama programme to be broadcast tonight (13/01/25) if the drugs become available free on the NHS they will cost £10bn a year and bankrupt it.

To save the NHS, and anyone interested the private cost, the dangers and the side effects of the drugs I’m pleased to publish below a “memoir” I wrote 25 years ago for the benefit of a colleague, let’s call him Melvin, (not his real name), and a fellow church-goer – hence the occasional  pious allusions.

 

                                                                                                                           10th February, 2000

Dear Melvin,

Thank you very much for asking for advice on dieting.  I consider myself an expert  and it has been my intention  to write a “memoir” on this topic ever since I retired.  This could be the start of a  “best seller” which will make my fortune.[i]

Herewith therefore background information on how to lose weight (and keep it lost rather than put it back on again, which is what most people do.)

1.    1. The ONLY way to lose weight is to use up more calories than your body  consumes.  There are no shortcuts.

2.   2.  It is not a fair world.  Some people seem  to consume huge amounts of food  and hardly ever put on weight.  Others seem to eat hardly anything  and still get or remain fat.

3.    3. The reason for (2) above is that people have different metabolisms.  Some people  burn up more energy  more quickly than others.  They are often very nervous people.  It is possible to increase your body’s metabolic rate  (see number 21 below), but on the whole you have to put up with what you’re born with.

4.    4. All people are different and what works best for one does not necessarily work so well for another.    We each have to adopt  the basic principles to suit our own personalities and metabolisms.  For example, I have never been much good at “cutting down,” and have found it much easier to “cut out” a fattening item altogether (eg chips) rather than just eat fewer.  You may be different.

5.   5.  I have in my lifetime read hundreds of diet and cookery-books. The best in my opinion is “The F-plan Diet” by Audrey Eyton[ii],  I picked up a second-hand copy at a Liberal bazaar 16 years ago and I’ve felt fuller, fitter and happier ever since.  I’ll let you have it if I can find it.  Don’t follow it slavishly, (for example the intake of too much bran is now thought to be bad for the bowel) but read it and take in the general principles, which are sound.

6.    6. Most “cutting down” diets leave you feeling hungry.  The F-plan trick is to eat plenty of less-fattening foods, and fewer of the more-fattening foods, so that you feel full don’t put on weight.

7.    7. The “downside” is that most of the “tasty” foods (bacon, crisps, meat , rich sauces) are fattening, and most of the less-fattening but filing foods (rice, pasta, potatoes) are somewhat bland (to put it mildly).  So you tend to jazz them up  with a rich sauce, and that makes them fattening.  Ergo there is a price to pay.

8.   8.  But persevere: even a plate of spaghetti  with no sauce at all tastes delightful if you’re hungry enough.  I now thoroughly enjoy a good chewy piece of wholemeal dry bread: butter would ruin it.

9.     9. ALL FOODS (with the exception of celery, the chewing of which uses up more calories than it contains, so they say, and one other glorious piece of good    news , of which more later) ARE FATTENING. – even fruit and the above-mentioned dry bread.  But it you eat more of the less-fattening ones and less  of the fattening ones you should be able to lose weight without feeling too hungry.

1110. The only way to keep the weight off is to change your diet permanently.  Think of a complete change of lifestyle rather than just abstinence for a period.  The latter approach is a waste of time.

1111.Have three or four regular meals a day.  Don’t miss a meal, because that just makes you hungrier for the next one and you eat more.

1112.NEVER EAT BETWEEN MEALS.  (If you get desperate munch a carrot.)

1113.Cut out absolutely butter (or any other spread) on bread, sugar in tea and coffee, all sweet biscuits, chocolates, fancy cakes  and confectionery, cornflakes and full-cream milk, pudding and custard, anything fried – particularly deep-fried, and including fish and chips.

1114. Cut down as far as possible on fat in cooking[iii] (use polyunsaturated or olive oil), red meat, sauces, thickened gravy, milk, cheese, sugar in cooking or anything where it is not absolutely necessary.

1115. Use skimmed rather than full-fat, or even half-fat, milk.  I use powdered fully-skimmed low-fat milk from Tesco’s as I hope you can use more and get the flavour without, if the label is to be believed, getting a large amount of fat.

1116. Most unfortunately, alcohol is very fattening indeed.  It helps to cut it out altogether for a period (eg Lent) and then drink moderately of the less-sweet drinks (dry red or white wine).  Avoid sweet sherry, liqueurs, strong beer and stout.  Even fruit juices with no added sugar contain lots of calories.  Water doesn’t and, if you’re in a pub, slim-line tonic with ice and lemon or soda-water with bitters are pleasant drinks which don’t do too much harm and produce fewer funny looks than they did 20 years ago.

1117. What, you will be wondering, can you eat?  Well, the more you eat of anything the less weight you will lose.  Concentrate on:

                        Porridge (no milk, cream, sugar, honey or treacle, of                                             course);           

                        Pasta, rice, potatoes (no butter or milk to “cream” them),                                    Jacket   potatoes are  excellent.  Instead of butter try a little                                   low-fat cheese or low calorie coleslaw;

     Green vegetables until the cows come home: cabbage, broccoli,         cauliflower, green beans (not baked beans from a tin, which                contain a lot of sugar.)  Don’t undo the good by swamping in               thick  sauces or butter.  Raw vegetables are chewier and last             longer in the mouth  than cooked ones.  Raw carrots  for times  of     desperation  are a good standby.[iv]  I eat a lot of coleslaw which I     make myself with finely-shredded cabbage as the base.

    Fresh fruit – apples, pears oranges, peaches melons, more or less     anything except bananas.  Each piece of fresh fruit contains about     70 calories so it is not a harmless alternative, but it is healthy,            chewy, tasty and lasts.

If this section sounds grim, remember millions in the Third World[v] would give their eye teeth for a diet so rich and varied.

1118.Traditionally we regard a meal as a meat or fish dish accompanied by two veg (one a “filler” such as potatoes, the other a fresh vegetable).  Try to get away from this  and think of a meal  as mainly potatoes, pasta or rice “flavoured” with a little meat or “sauce” and accompanied by lots and lots of vegetables – something to fill you up and keep you healthy.

1119. Do not expect that when you have lost weight you will look like Charles Atlas or become a sex symbol.  You won’t.  Weight tends to come off first in the places you’d prefer it not to, such as the face and neck, and last, if at all, from the waist and stomach.  So you end up looking haggard but still with a pot belly.  However, you will feel and be a lot healthier.

2 20. Losing weight (and keeping it off) is as much a psychological as a physical thing.  In my view it needs mental preparation, and you have to want to do it.  I suggest you don’t start this regime at once, but think about it for a couple of weeks, enjoy for the last time  the things you love (eg oven chips,  - though you will gradually come to regard them as poisons) and them make a start on Ash Wednesday, with the resolve that you will keep going  at least until Easter.  By then it could well have become a habit.

2 21. Aerobic exercise is the way to increase your body’s metabolic rate.  To achieve this you need to do exercise that increases you heart rate for at least 20 minutes on four or five days a week  This creates an oxygen shortage in the blood.  If you do this for long enough (several weeks), and then keep it up, your metabolic rate increases, and your body automatically burns off more calories, so you can eat more.  I achieve this by jogging four miles[vi]  (not very fast, alas) most days .  Others do it be work-outs in the gym, or aerobic classes.  It is important to realise that it is not the exercise itself that burns off the calories, but the change in metabolic rate produced by aerobic exercise over a period of time.  Before attempting this it is probably wise to consult a doctor

2 22. Normal exercise, such as walking to work rather than driving, using stairs rather than lifts, is fine and healthy and good for the environment but not much use for losing weight.  It takes an astonishing number of trips up stairs  to use up the calories  ingested from just one chocolate, and exercise tends to stimulate the appetite and thus make you want to eat more.  So don’t rely on exercise (other than aerobic as described above)  as part of your weight-losing regime, but as an additional means of keeping healthy.

2 23. The best piece of news since St John’s Gospel is that there is just one quite tasty piece of food the eating of which actually does help you to lose weight. Half a grapefruit taken every morning (without sugar, honey  or other additives, of course) causes you to lose 30 calories a day. A third of a tin of (unsweetened ) grapefruit is even more effective.  This is really true: I saw it reported in the Guardian  from a meeting of the British Association several years ago and desperately with I’d kept the cutting.  The reason is that grapefruit contain something that jazzes up the metabolism a little and therefore  uses rather than adds energy.  Unfortunately the effect is nullified rather than doubled  by eating a whole grapefruit or two thirds of a tin.

2 24. Once you have got rid of the weight you need to lose you will be able to relax the regime a little and re-introduce  a few of the things you enjoy most.  But do be careful, as it is so easy to put back on all the weight you have lost (which is why Weight Watchers is a flourishing business.)  My own trick is to stick fairly rigidly to the regime when I’m at home, but eat more or less what I like when I’m out.  If I don’t have the things that are fattening  at home (eg ice-cream, sausages, butter, sweet biscuits, milk and so on ) then I can’t be tempted to eat them.  Admittedly this policy is easier  to implement if you live on your own, and is probably not worth getting divorced for.

Best of luck,

Peter.

 

I have not kept in touch with Melvin so I have no idea whether he tried it, and if so whether it worked for him. But it certainly worked for me, and still does.



[i] My pension has proved perfectly adequate so I have no need of a fortune.  If anyone wants to try and  make their own by publishing  this, feel free,  Perhaps combine it with "How to stop smoking" (see below.)  But please acknowledge the source.     I wouldn’t mind a bit of renown.

[ii] https://www.abebooks.co.uk/book-search/title/the-f-plan-diet/author/audrey-eyton/

[iii] This was written before air fryers appeared on the market, which may allow you to have more taste without more weight.

[iv] These are also very useful if trying to stop smoking.  See previous blog post on 31/12/2013

https://keynesianliberal.blogspot.com/2013/12/stopping-smoking.html

[v] As we called it then.  Now the Global South.

[vi] Now reduced to about 3k, but it takes a similar amount of time. tempus fugit

Thursday, 9 January 2025

Abusing politics

 

I dislike the term “playing politics.”  “Playing” normally refers to games.  A good move or result in chess, football, rounders or whatever  can produce a rush of pleasurable adrenaline and a bad one, or outcome, periods of disappointment. But nothing serious or life changing.   

That is not true of a bad outcome in politics.  Hence I would describe the present shenanigans surrounding the Tories’ call for yet another enquiry into the abuse of children  as “abusing politics.”

The facts are simple.   

There have been several enquires into child abuse.  The major one  was headed by a Professor Alexis Jay  and she reported to the then Conservative government in May, 2023, making 20 recommendations. That Conservative government remained in power for a further complete year, yet implemented not one of the  recommendations in the  report.

Then, for reasons best known to himself, Elon Musk, the American social  media mogul, made accusation of complicity by British politicians in covering up child abuse.

 Immediately the present  Conservative leader, Kemi  Badenoch,  and one of her front bench spokespersons,  Robert Jenrick,  expressed desperate concern about child abuse and the need to protect our “young white girls” from molestation by “gangs who do not share our culture. ”

Presumably they  hoping that no one would notice that most of the proven abuses had taken place during the 14 years when their party was in power, or that  they had both been ministers during  that whole year when Jay’s 20 recommendations sat on the back burner with no attempt to implement them.

Or maybe they felt the media and their potential supporters would not let the facts get in the way of story they hoped would be “good” for them

This is an abuse of politics which is not just childish, it is infantile.

It is true that there is a problem of child abuse. Measure should be taken to reduce the possibility of it in the future and the present government is taking steps to implement the 20 recommendations.  Maybe it should have moved faster, but it has been a hectic six months since they took power and they are not short of other problems.

 There is also a problem of community relations.  In most areas various immigrant communities with different cultural backgrounds settle in amiably with the native population.  However, there can be outbreaks of inter-community discord, and even riots, and extreme right-wing groups have not been slow to exploit them, often on the basis of false information.

A mainstream party such as the Conservatives claim to be would be aware of the danger of inflammatory language and distortions of the truth.  Instead Mrs Badenoch and her party are seeking to exploit the situation and “stir the pot” for what they hope is their own short-term political advantage..

They should be ashamed.

That is an abuse of politics. It is an embarrassment that it is taking place in a highly educated and what should be a sophisticated and mature society.