Thursday 5 November 2020

US Election: a score draw?

 

Although neither Biden nor Trump has yet reached the winning tally of 270 electoral college  votes it seems that Biden is now the overwhelming favourite to get there.

 If so then those of us who believe in the rational and dignified conduct of public affairs can heave a sight of relief at the end of the awfulness of the Trump presidency. 

Whether America itself will benefit all that much (see later) is by no means guaranteed, but the World as a whole will benefit if the leader its most powerful nation accepts the reality of the climate crisis, the acceptance of international law and co-operation,  and the orderly conduct of international trade.

Unfortunately the wave of revulsion against Trumpist populism for which so many enthusiasts for liberal democracy  had hoped has not happened.   In spite of the vulgarity of  the Trump presidency, its failure to cope with the  pandemic, its disregard of constitutional norms and its blustering rhetoric, the Republican vote has held up well.  

The Democrats have failed to gain control of the Senate, and their majority in the House of Representatives has actually been reduced.  Hence the Biden presidency, if it is realised, will be hamstrung for at least the first two years.                                                          

There will be expert analysis of this result over the coming months, but for now it seems that an Email from a friend of mine, Allan Marriot,  sent some weeks ago, contains considerable insight.  Allan predicted a Trump victory because, whereas Biden was honourable, rational, conventional and respectful of political norms, Trump's supporter were more influenced by his promise of jobs, antagonism towards immigration, standing up to China and , above all, making America great (again?)

Well , with any luck Allan was wrong about the victory, but I think he gave good reasons for the solidity of the support.

In today's Guardian Martin Kettle gives a similar analysis.  He writes:

"Biden ... campaigned as if the Covid-19 pandemic was the main issue.

... But the white working class voters in the rust belt ... [still supported Trump because] they felt ignored, their jobs and communities had gone, they thought others - including foreigners - were getting too good a deal, and they wanted someone to speak for them."

So the the 2020 US election does not, after all, spell the beginning of the end of the populist wave sweeping through the US and Europe. It is a lesson we must learn in the UK.  The lies, bluster and incompetence of the present government will not by themselves bring about their downfall.  

The progressive forces here, rightly appalled by the current shambles, must put together a programme with clearly demonstrates that we have  heard the pleas of the "left behind" and have a constructive plan for a brighter future which includes them.  

Plans to restore the glories of liberal democracy are essential, but they are not by themselves enough.



15 comments:

  1. 'But the white working class voters in the rust belt' is what the party must fight for.The jobs that have been lost must be replaced with green ones etc. Education must be used for retraining HOPE IS WHAT IS REQUIRED to sell a new dawn.

    ReplyDelete
  2. A Universal Basic Income with a fall back using social security can help with giving that hope,peace of mind and control that sense of helplessness,uselessness stress and pressure that the modern system gives.
    REMEMBER that is not what the powerful want for that can erode their power.They want a compliant work force.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks Nigel Hunter. I agree with you on both counts. What all people need is a sense of usefulness and progress. Hanging around on the dole satisfies neither.

    I'm all in favour of UBI and feel it is inevitable as more jobs are done mechanically or by robots. The problem is getting it implemented.

    The Tories will never do it: their support of money for nothing is limited to their mates. Labour is too timid. One friend of mine, a Labour Party member, suggests we should introduce it gradually: say £1000 a year (with variations for age etc and reductions of other benefits)) for each year of a parliament, just to see how it works. If successful, in a five year parliament that would put everybody on £100 a week. If the government which did this were re-elected, another couple of years or so would bring the UBI close to the levels of current retirement pensions, which the powers that be presumably believe to be enough to avoid destitution.

    A tiny minority might accept this and live a life of idleness (their choice) but the overwhelming majority would want more and still seek work for a sense of usefulness and progress, but not necessarily full time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even if a universal basic income weren't actually immoral (I simply don't believe that a lot of people won't just live on it while they play in a crap band with their mates, or 'work on their novel', or do whatever various other things people should not be paid to do), how exactly do you propose to pay for it? Surely it just means an ever-increasing tax burden on the few who do keep doing the actual useful work; and the bigger that burden gets the fewer people will actually do the work (even if you would work if you didn't have to, would you still work if 80% of your earnings were to be taken in tax to pay for the scroungers and moochers? Would the rational thing then not be to join them?), leading to a vicious circle.

      You are going to hit the same problem socialism always does: eventually, you just run out of other people's money.

      Delete
    2. I think you're wrong. I believe the overwhelming majority would still want the challenge, satisfaction and sense of self worth that work brings. That is the evidence from the various trials that have been made. Bringing in UBI incrementally would give us a chance to see what might happen and reassess he situation accordingly.

      Incidentally you observe that "a lot of people won't just live on it while they play in a crap band with their mates. . " That has actually been permitted and maybe still is. Aspiring pop-group members have been allowed to collect unemployment benefit without desperately applying for jobs in the hope that their groups would eventually become self-sufficient. Hence "Britpop" was encouraged and became a nice little export earner.

      Delete
    3. Haven't you just totally demolished your own argument there? I said that if you let people get money to live on without getting a job they would just play in a crap band with their mates instead. You claim that wouldn't happen… but then say that that's exactly what did happen when people were allowed to collect money without getting a job but playing in a crap band with their mates instead!

      I think you've just proved my point. Ta for that.

      Delete
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