The shine on Andy Burnham’s reputation as a progressive willing to co-operate with other parties to transform our politics in the UK continues to become more tarnished. His latest U-turn is to shy away from his proposal that limits should be placed on the amounts individuals can contribute to their preferred political parties.
For years it has been a commonplace that political office in the US, including the Presidency, is “up for sale.” Advertising and other expenditure on campaigns at all levels in the US far exceeds anything contemplated in the UK. But we are moving in that direction.
Expenditure on general election campaigns has been very disproportionate since the war, with the Tories , funded by big business, at the top, followed by Labour, funded largely by the trade Unions, and the Liberals and (and now the Greens) trailing at the bottom, now outspent by Reform. (Who or what funds them?)
The situation is rapidly worsening, with rich individuals, not all of them resident in this country deliberately trying to influence our politics.
In this situation I find the limit per individual of £5,000 formerly proposed by Mr Burnham, absurdly high, even if its meant to be for a lifetime rather than per year. (I don’t know which.) I would suggest a limit of £500 per year per individual or corporate entity to be far more appropriate. That would still leave the parties unduly beholden the “comfortably off” rather than those struggling to make ends meet.
Be that as it may, the situation is urgent and limits of some sort should be introduced to restrict the sale of political influence in the UK now, before the next general election.
Years ago a professor whose name escapes me proposed in the now defunct “Liberal News” the following method of financing our political parties.
1. Parliament would decide at regular intervals the total amount necessary periodically for the funding of our democracy.
2. 2. This amount would then be divided by the total number of people on the electoral registers. Let’s say, for simplicity’s sake, that it is £20.
3. 3. Vouchers for £20 would then be issued periodically to all eligible voters.
4. 4. The vouchers could only be cashed by a registered political party.
It was expected that the system would operate in this way:
1. 1. Party members and political nerds would promptly send their voucher to the HQ of their favoured party.
2. 2. Party canvassers would be incentivised to knock on doors and try to persuade the voucher holders of the merits of the party and hand over the voucher to send to their HQ (or ask the voter to do it themselves, having provided the address.) The alienated would be free to thrwo the voucher away if they wished.
3. 3. Other financial contributions to political parties would either be strictly limited or forbidden.
Such a system would encourage a closer examination of the policies of the parties on a regular basis rather than the present concentration of sloganising at election time.
Above all, it would be fairer.
I’ve mentioned before that my very first lecturer in what as then called “British Constitution “ at A level, a Mr Chekanovski (that spelling may be incorrect: it was a long time ago) cited “the British tradition of fair play” as one of the pillars of our system.
Come on Mr Burnham - fair play!
As you might expect, I would object to your proposal on several grounds:
ReplyDelete1. I am not a member of any political party specifically because I do not want to give my money to any of them, and I don’t see why I should be forced to. So I should be able to cash the voucher myself, if I don’t want to give it to any party. I should not be forced to either spend my money on something I don’t want, or throw my own money away.
2. Contrariwise, if I did support a political party, I don’t see why I should be limited to giving them £20. It’s my money; I should be free to spend it how I wish, whether that is on luxuries for myself, giving it to charity, or funding a political party to make the country more like I think it should be.
3. If the vouchers are given to everyone on the electoral register, that means they will be given to people who are not net taxpayers. That means, as a net taxpayer, some of my money will be being given to other people, who may then give it to political parties I disagree with. That means that under your system I am being forced to fund with my money parties I disagree with. This is totally unacceptable.
Peter
Deleteyou raise an important – but challenging - question about party funding.
The current system lacks transparency and is open to to potential influence, abuse and corruption – those contributing expecting a tangible payback in one form or another – access to the corridors of power, new contracts, peerages etc
It's also clear that with the changing landscape of political marketing there's no simple alternative (in spite of what Chekanovski said!)
You can leave it to donations – individuals, company-based, trade union-based – as is currently the case with rules to try to make the source of donations as transparent as possible.
You can make it entirely state funded where parties get their campaigning funding from public funds
Or you can have some sort of hybrid system which is what the UK currently has in some form or other
None are ideal with advantages and disadvantages of each.
There are a couple of other issues
One relates to the existing problem of visible media support for particular parties (or issues). This is not paid for by the political party concerned but clearly may have a major influence of voter behaviour.
We saw this in Scotland with the Indy referendum in 2014 where all the national newspapers took an anti-Indy stance and of course they all happen to be owned and run by non-Scots!
The second issue that's an increasing trend is the impact of social/digital media supported by AI
Again this may occur without any direct expenditure from any one political party but arguably can have a major influence on both public opinion and voting intention
Some info that I managed to dig out:
Party funding 2001-2026
Conservative and Unionist Party £632.4m
Labour Party £529.9m
Liberal Democrats £164.7m
Reform UK £51.8m (since 2019 only)
Scottish National Party (SNP) £31.8m
Source of funding
Individuals 43%
Companies 17%
Trade unions 16%
with a further 17% coming from “public funds”
And then there's the donations made to individual MPs – which is seperate from those to their party. From their required Declared Interests:
Badenoch c. £400,000 (2025/26)
Starmer c. £11,000 (2024-2026)
Davey c. £52,000 (2024-2026)
Burnham c. £360,000 (2026)
Farage £1.4 million (2024-26)
Democracy has to be funded, and funded fairly. Otherewise it becomes the tool of the super-rich, distorted to act in their interest.
ReplyDeleteDemocracy is working perfectly well you just get annoyed when it doesn’t give the results you want because you can’t accept that your positions are unpopular and people vote against them because they don’t want them, so you have to make believe that the public are gullible idiots who can be brainwashed.
DeleteIt’s just the old Marxist ‘false consciousness’ nonsense, updated for a technological age.
In reality: people vote for what they want, not how they are told. But what they want is not what you think they should want. Suck it up.
Like Tony Benn, I prefer to be a signpost rather than a weathercock. The media, largely owned by the rich, point one way: I point another.
DeleteThe media, largely owned by the rich, point one way: I point another.
DeleteFair enough; but if people, having given the matter due consideration, prefer to go the way the media points, will you respect that as their sovereign decision?
Of course, but I shall continue to campaign for a fairer representation of views.
DeleteOf course, but I shall continue to campaign for a fairer representation of views.
DeleteOf course you can continue to campaign. But you have to accept that people can legitimately disagree with you without having been manipulated by the media, or by money. Do you accept that?
Of course
DeleteOf course
DeleteThen why, if you accept that people vote according to their own wills and aren’t brainwashed by the media and money, do you write about party financing?
Oh
DeleteYou start " people can legitimately disagree with you without having been manipulated by the media, or by money"
Peter comments that he accepts this is possible
Your statement uses the word "can" rather than "do" implying only that it's possible.
You use the word "people" implying that some "can" do this but not suggesting that all "can"
You then go on to say:
"Then why, if you accept that people vote according to their own wills and aren’t brainwashed by the media and money, do you write about party financing?dear, poor logic I'm afraid."
moving on - incorrectly - to a false assumption that ALL people "vote according to their wills"
I'm afraid that it's your logic that needs improving
Just because SOME people may vote uninfluenced by the media you CANNOT conclude that ALL people are uninfluenced.
Just because SOME people may vote uninfluenced by the media you CANNOT conclude that ALL people are uninfluenced.
DeleteWell obviously we know that you can’t think for yourself and just vote the way your groupthink bubble tells you to.
But most people are not as easily influenced as you.
I'm always amused when personal name calling starts as it signifies that you're unable to refute the argument.
Delete"Well obviously we know that you can’t think for yourself and just vote the way your groupthink bubble tells you to.
But most people are not as easily influenced as you."
QED
Today's headline
DeleteReform UK has received a £36m donation from a British cryptocurrency billionaire - a record for a UK political party.
BBC News
So much for a level playing field
Reform UK has received a £36m donation from a British cryptocurrency billionaire - a record for a UK political party.
DeleteSo what? It’s his money. If he wants to pay for Mr Farage’s bar bill, why shouldn’t he?
It’s only a problem if, like that five million, it isn’t properly declared to the voters so they can make an informed decision on where to place their cross.
and another £36 million just added.
Deleteand another £36 million just added
DeleteAnd well-publicised, so it's all above board and voters can decide for themselves whether it is true that the donor expects nothing in return.
You're missing the point
DeleteNo one's saying - as far as I know - that these donations are against "the rules".
But this again raises the question - are the current rules fit for purpose?
The existing parties will do all they can to use this as political capital and probably bring in some sot of upper limit on individual donations if only to stop Reform getting more of the same
And the second point is that - other than hardcore Reform supporters - no-one going to believe these donations won't get some sort of payback for the donors
DeleteIt may not be in the visible form of a peerage etc but these guys have bought themselves influence with Farage (who knows that also) and a less visible method for having an input into policies that favour them and their businesses
It's totally naive to think otherwise and the electorate will know that.
Farage has also now positioned himself and his party as willing to accept this sort of money despite his "no favours in return" declaration
It will be interesting to see the impact of this on potential Reform supporters who may now see him as on sale to the highest bidder. The carefully created image of Farage as one of the boys down the local pub has just been blown out of the water
It's totally naive to think otherwise and the electorate will know that.
DeleteThen the net effect of these donations will be to lose Reform votes at the next election — and so if you don’t want to see Reform in government you should be happy about that, shouldn’t you?
This is the system working as intended: maximum freedom combined with maximum transparency and trusting the voters to know their own minds.
Is that not how it should be?
Maximum transparency???
DeleteSo do we get to see the WhatsApp conversations between Farage and his 2 donors?
"Then the net effect of these donations will be to lose Reform votes at the next election — and so if you don’t want to see Reform in government you should be happy about that, shouldn’t you?"
Delete1. I doubt he'll lose many Reform voters because of this. What's likely to happy is that the waverers - Tory voters and left-behind Labour - may well be put off switching their voting allegiance.
Farage has deliberately positioned himself as the put-upon underdog - David versus the 2 goliaths of Labour and Tory.
That's now gone because of the £70+ million. He's no longer the underdog but the lottery winner - but with 2 new paymasters.
2. I'd love to see Farage win the next general election
He'll single handedly massively boost support for Scottish independence
I doubt he'll lose many Reform voters because of this. What's likely to happy is that the waverers - Tory voters and left-behind Labour - may well be put off switching their voting allegiance.
DeleteSo you think the net effect will be neither positive nor negative, but zero or close to it? I think that’s certainly very plausible. But in that case, what’s the big deal?
He'll single handedly massively boost support for Scottish independence
Oh dear, are you one of those awful neverendum people? ‘Vote, vote, vote again, until you get the result I like — then no more voting!’
Oh dear your maths is clearly not very good.
DeleteZero effect?
Farage needs to convince non-reform voters to switch their vote at the next election. The donations won't help do this - Farages carefully constructed image as a man of the people and underdog and someone picked on by the establishment has been negatively affected by this £70 million
As for Scotland - your response again indicates your inabilty to present a coherent argument. Pure BS as usual
Zero effect?
DeleteThat’s what you wrote: it won’t lose him any votes, but it won’t gain him any votes either. That is, by definition, a net effect of zero.
As for Scotland
You know, your best chance of Scotland becoming independent would be to have a whole-Britain referendum. Scotland would probably still vote sensibly 60-40 but England would vote 80-20 to kick the sporran-shaggers out of the Union and close the borders.
"That’s what you wrote: it won’t lose him any votes, but it won’t gain him any votes either."
DeleteWhere exactly did I write this?
"You know, your best chance of Scotland becoming independent would be to have a whole-Britain referendum."
DeleteProposed by the Scottish Govt. Rejected by Cameron
I wonder why?
Proposed by the Scottish Govt.
DeleteNo, it wasn't. The Scottish Government's Your Scotland, Your Voice white paper which kicked off the referendum quest (illegally produced, of course, as the Scottish civil service should not have been spending money on reserved matters like the constitution) can be found at: https://webarchive.nrscotland.gov.uk/public/+/https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2009/11/26155932/12
Paragraph 10.8 reads: 'The next step is to ensure that the whole of Scotland can give its view on the extension of the responsibilities of the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Government proposes that a Referendum should be held in Scotland in 2010 to allow that view to be heard.'
Note: 'the whole of Scotland' and 'a Referendum should be held in Scotland'. Not 'the whole of the United Kingdom' or 'a referendum should be held in the United Kingdom'.
At no point ever did the Scottish government propose a referendum on Scottish independence in which the whole electorate of the United Kingdom would be entitled to vote.
(Are the SNP still trying to claim that the English would pay the pensions of people living in an independent Scotland? That was the funniest thing I heard in a long while).
DeleteFor years it has been a commonplace that political office in the US, including the Presidency, is “up for sale.”
ReplyDeleteIt may be a ‘commonplace’ but is it actually true that the presidency is always won by the candidate who spends the most money?
Or is it one of those bits of received wisdom that turns out not to be correct at all?
If it is produce the evidence.
ReplyDeleteof the 12 US presidential elections since 1980 (when spending started to be recorded more robustly) 9 were won by the candidate spending most
Deleteof the 12 US presidential elections since 1980 (when spending started to be recorded more robustly) 9 were won by the candidate spending most
DeleteOkay, so we definitely know the Presidency is not 'up for sale' in the sense that the higher-spending candidate always wins.
But, another question is: is that statistically significant?
Well, assuming that it's false that the Presidency is 'up for sale' we would expect the higher-spending candidate to win about 50% of the time. So the chance of obtaining the observed result, where the higher-spending candidate wins nine out of twelve times, purely by fluke is the sum of the binomial coefficients of winning at least 9 times divided by two to the power of twelve, which I make to be about 0.072998.
So no, not significant; we need a few more elections before we can say for sure.
(And of course this is quite a simplistic analysis; there could be confounding factors, such as that if one candidate is obviously going to win then donors may want to give them money in order to curry favour, which would inflate their spending total).
I'm afraid you're out of date with your analysis
DeleteIt's been advised for a long time - by the American Statistical Association amongst others - that p values should be used in statistical inference rather than the strict hypothesis test involving alpha at 0.05 and 0.01
This allows for a more nuanced evaluation of the results rather than a definitive significant or not decision.
In this case - given the limited information - we assume there is no association between campaign spend and the likelihood of winning the election so each candidate has a 50/50 chance.
This implies that 6 of the winners should have been the big spender and 6 should not
However, we observe that 9 out of 12 were big spenders.
What's the probability of this IF campaign spend does NOT affect winning?
The answer is 0.073 (as you report)
That is IF campaign spend does NOT affect winning then the probability of 9 out of 12 winners having the biggest spend is only 7.3%
What conclusions you come to based on that depends on interpretation
For me, it reinforces my opinion that more money means a better chance of being elected - although it's not definitive "proof".
What conclusions you come to based on that depends on interpretation
DeleteAnd, shockingly, your interpretation leads you to the conclusion that you had already decided you wanted to find. Who could have predicted that?
Logic as Spock would say
DeleteThere's 7% chance of 9/12 wins that had nothing to do with campaign spend OR there's a 93% chance that 9/12 wins DID have something to do with campaign spend
Even a Reform supporter would see which way the wind is blowing (from France to England presumably)
Thanks for the above information Mik W, which is enough to convince me the "commonplace" is a pretty reliable guide. Thanks also for your detailed contributions above on party funding and the press. The Scottish experience speaks volumes. I agree we need to tackle the press as well as party funding. As a general rule I think media owners should live in this country and pay taxes. Social media will be more difficult to control.
ReplyDeleteI agree we need to tackle the press as well as party funding.
DeleteHang on. I thought you accepted that people’s votes are an expression of their legitimate opinions.
If that’s the case, why do we need to ‘tackle’ the press? Are you reverting to saying you think that people can be brainwashed by the media to vote in the way the media wants them to, rather than in the way they actually want to?
I mean I know you get all your opinions from the Manchester Guardian, but other people aren’t as easily manipulated as your sort.
So here's an interesting question for you
DeleteIf people's opinions and voting intentions are NOT influenced by party advertising why do all the political parties spend their limited budgets on such advertising?
Around £20 million was spent on political advertising for the 2024 election - more than half of that on Meta/google/Facebook
If people's opinions and voting intentions are NOT influenced by party advertising why do all the political parties spend their limited budgets on such advertising?
DeleteOh that’s easy. There are two reasons for a political party to advertise:
1. To tell people what you believe, and how you propose to achieve them so that they know that if they believe the same things, and think your plans are practical, they should vote for you.
2. To tell people things they might not know about what your opponents do and believe, so that they know if they disagree with your opponents they shouldn’t vote for them.
Neither of those influence people’s opinions or views. They just let people know which parties they should vote for based on their pre-existing views.
How naive!
DeleteAdvertising is just for information then?
Tell that to Tesco, Heinz, Google, Musk ....
No attempt there to "influence" surely?
Grow up
ScienceDirect
"Opinion formation refers to the process by which individuals develop personal beliefs and attitudes based on various influences, including everyday experiences, media, education, and social learning. This process involves learning from others through observation, imitation, and modeling, leading to the acquisition of opinions that may not be grounded in proof or certainty."
"leading to the acquisition of opinions that may not be grounded in proof or certainty."
Deletesounds just like Reform
Advertising is just for information then?
DeleteTell that to Tesco, Heinz, Google, Musk ....
Yes. Why else do Tesco run advertisements informing people of what their prices are? Why else do Heinz run advertisements informing people of the flavours of their soups?
(As I say, we know that some people, like you, have no ideas of their own so just believe everything they read in the Guardian. But most people are not so weak-minded)
DeleteTesco etc advertise in order to influence people's behaviour - in this case case buying. (Ask Tesco)
DeletePolitical parties advertise to influence people's behaviour - in this case voting
Btw it's decades since I read the Grauniad
Tesco etc advertise in order to influence people's behaviour - in this case case buying. (Ask Tesco)
DeleteNo. Tesco make their prices low in order to influence people’s behaviour. The advertising just informs people about the low prices.
Do grow up
DeleteTesco spend over £100 million a year on traditional advertising - good of them to spend so much telling us about their low prices
Reform spent over £5 million telling us about their "policies" even though they had major media coverage with virtually no one in the country not aware of Farage. No wonder they need overseas donations
Tesco spend over £100 million a year on traditional advertising - good of them to spend so much telling us about their low prices
DeleteNot really — it’s an arms race. If Asda spend £90 million a year telling us about their low prices, Tesco have to spend £100 million or there will be people who think that Asda’s prices are lower than Tesco’s.
Reform spent over £5 million telling us about their "policies" even though they had major media coverage
Yes, because there are millions of people in the country who never read a newspaper and never watch the news on television. How else can Reform make sure they are aware of their policies than by paying for advertising targeted specifically at them?
I doubt there are many who DON'T know about Reform and their views from the widespread (unpaid) media coverage
DeleteI doubt there are many who DON'T know about Reform and their views from the widespread (unpaid) media coverage
DeleteAnd how exactly would someone who never reads a newspaper and never watches television news find out about media coverage?
"And how exactly would someone who never reads a newspaper and never watches television news find out about media coverage?"
DeleteOh dear. How many millions of people in the UK do you think that describes? :-)
Answer from Ofcom - around 96% of UK adults consume news in some form (TV, online, radio, or newspapers) implying that 4% don't
If those are the people that reform is pending £5+ million trying to reach then I'd class it as money well spent!
"advertising just informs people about the low prices."
ReplyDeleteI do chuckle when I see your posts
tell you what.
If you ever get the chance to get into the marketing dept of any commercial organisation tell them exactly the same.
Then waits for the howls of laughter from the marketing professionals!
Or better still do some proper research into the published studies investigating how advertising impacts on peoples' opinions and decisions.
There's lots available online from reputable sources.
But then again - why let the facts get in the way of your opinion!
If you ever get the chance to get into the marketing dept of any commercial organisation tell them exactly the same.
DeleteWell of course marketing people will tell you that advertising changes opinions, because if they told the truth they would all be out if a job!
but unlike yourself they'll actually have evidence to back up their claim
Deletebut unlike yourself they'll actually have evidence to back up their claim
DeleteWell of course they will make up evidence — wouldn’t you if you job was at stake?
It's not made up - there's hard and independent evidence available that you clearly want to avoid as you're in denial. As I said, like so many you don't want the facts to get in the way of your fantasies
DeleteIt's not made up - there's hard and independent evidence available that you clearly want to avoid as you're in denial.
DeleteGo on, point to this evidence that is impartial and proves causation and not just correlation then.
Do the Alternative für Deutschland party get lots of media coverage in Germany? Or do people vote for them in large numbers despite little media coverage or advertising, because the other parties refuse to address their concerns?
Deleteas I've previously said I'm not your research assistant
DeleteThis material is readily available via Google and other search engines for those who can be bothered and have a GENUINE interest in serious debate and in learning.
I find many who are simple dogmatic in their views, keep repeating the same things and can provide no substantive evidence to support these and who clearly have no interest in learning.
Join the club
I find many who are simple dogmatic in their views, keep repeating the same things and can provide no substantive evidence to support these
DeleteWell, as you keep repeating the same things and refuse to provide any substantive evidence to support them, I guess you know what you are talking about.
of course that would be your reply.
DeleteYou simply keep repeating the same old mantra
Whatever gets you through the night ....
of course that would be your reply.
DeleteWell yes, because it’s true.
Unless you’d like to point to some of this mythical ‘evidence’ that you insist supports your position?
Thought not.
tell you what
DeleteI'll show you mine if you show me yours
Here's a brief list of empirical evidence on voter behavior - there's lots more if you can be bothered to look (and we know you can't because you'd have to change your opinion)
Let's see your "evidence" now - it's put up or shut up time
Political advertising and consumer sentiment: Evidence from U.S. presidential elections
Cody Couture, Ann L. Owen
European Journal of Political Economy Date: January 2025 Article: 102647 Volume: Volume 86
We merge panel survey data on consumer sentiment with data on U.S. political advertisements run from 2013 to 2020 and estimate dynamic panel data models predicting the effect of positive, negative, and contrasting ads on several measures of consumer sentiment. We find that political ads during Presidential election cycles have a significant impact.
Do Online Ads Sway Voters? Understanding the Persuasiveness of Online Political Ads
Xiaotong Chu, Rens Vliegenthart, Lukas Otto,Sophie Lecheler,Claes de Vreese &Sanne Kruikemeier
Political Communication Volume 41, 2024 - Issue 2
This study investigates the effect of online political ads on party preference, and whether this effect is more pronounced for newer political parties and voters who are less politically knowledgeable and literate regarding online privacy. A mixed-method approach, combining Facebook browser tracking data and a four-wave panel survey, was adopted during the 2021 Dutch General Election campaign. The results showed that the number of political ads received from a specific party has a positive effect on both the propensity and choice to vote for that party. In addition, people with less political knowledge and online privacy literacy are more likely to be persuaded by online political ads.
Political Advertising and Election Results
Jorg L. Spenkuch David Toniatti March 2018
We study the persuasive e#ects of political advertising. Our empirical strategy exploits FCC regulations that result in plausibly exogenous variation in the number
of impressions across the borders of neighboring counties. Applying this approach
to detailed data on television advertisement broadcasts and viewership patterns
during the 2004{12 presidential campaigns, our results indicate that total political
advertising has almost no impact on aggregate turnout. By contrast, we fi
nd a positive and economically meaningful e#ect of advertising on candidates' vote shares.
Taken at face value, our estimates imply that a standard deviation increase in the
partisan di#erence in advertising raises the partisan di#erence in vote shares by
about 0.5 percentage points. Evidence from a regression discontinuity design suggests that advertising a#ects election results by altering the partisan composition
of the electorate.
and more
DeleteHow Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?
Brett Gordon, Mitchell J. Lovett, Bowen Luo, James Reeder
During presidential election campaigns, voters in battleground states are bombarded with TV ads. Some commercials paint candidates in glowing terms, raving about their impressive accomplishments and sterling character. Other ads go on the attack: they tear down the opponents’ record, disparage their ethics, and generally argue they would be an absolutely terrible leader.
But how much do all those ads, negative or positive, matter?
But in a new study, Gordon and his colleagues report that TV ads do influence voter turnout and choices—and that the tone of the ad makes a difference. Based on data from the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, the team found that positive ads encouraged more people to show up on Election Day, while negative ads slightly suppressed turnout. And while both types of commercials affected whom people supported, the negative ones were more effective at swaying voters’ decisions.
Online political advertising in the UK 2019 election
lblogs.lse.ac.uk
Exposure to online political ads has a positive but small effect on party preference. Studies indicate that receiving more ads from a specific party increases the likelihood of voting for that party by approximately 8.4% per additional ad, though the total effect remains modest (less than 5% increase even with multiple exposures). This persuasiveness is stronger among voters with lower political knowledge and for new parties seeking visibility. Furthermore, advertising appears to influence vote share by mobilizing core supporters rather than persuading undecided voters, tilting the partisan composition of the electorate.
Press releases aren’t evidence, especially when they are from outlets with a clear interest in finding one particular result. You need to provide links to the actual studies with the methodologies and evidence.
DeleteThese are not press releases they're abstracts of published works that you can find for yourself using what I've provided.
DeleteYou requested my evidence - here's some of it
Where's yours?
Put up or shut up for the last time
PS I know you won't be putting up and you're incapable of shutting up so unless there's any evidence from you I won't be engaging in any further discussion. I'll know it's all BS
These are not press releases they're abstracts of published works
DeleteThen paste the links.
You requested my evidence - here's some of it
DeleteWhere's yours?
My what? You can’t have evidence that something doesn’t exist. The person claiming it has to give the evidence that it does.
As I predicted pure BS
DeleteQED
Answer me this:
ReplyDeleteYou clearly think that the Liberal Democrats being elected would be good for Britain (I can’t explain why you think that but you obviously do).
So if you somehow came to have a spare £40 million — say someone bought you a lottery ticket for your birthday, and it won the £400 million jackpot — would you not give it to the Liberal Democrats? Do you not think you should be allowed to spend your money in a way that you think will help the country?
No one is spending money to help the country via political donations, they’re doing it for access and influence to help themselves.
ReplyDeleteNo one is spending money to help the country via political donations, they’re doing it for access and influence to help themselves.
DeleteThat’s interesting. The Liberal Democrats claim to have 60, 000 members, all of whom will have paid membership fees and most of whom will have donated extra time or money on top of that.
And you’re saying not one of those 60,000 is doing it because they think a Liberal Democrat government would be good for the country? Every single one (possibly even including the owner of this web-site) is just doing it to help themselves?
And I thought I was cynical.
You’re confusing memberships with big money donations. Do you think Nigel Farage is answering the phone to a £25 a year Reform member? However, if the caller display says ‘Christopher Harborne’, then it’s fag down, green button pressed, phone to ear. That’s what big donations buy - access. From there, influence.
ReplyDeleteYou’re confusing memberships with big money donations
DeleteYou’re moving the goalposts. We were talking about donations, and you’ve shifted it to ‘big money donations’.
But the point is that what’s ‘big money’ varies from person to person. You need to read Luke 12:1-4.
If someone with an annual income of £25,000 gives £25 — so 0.1% of their income — and that’s not because they want to buy access but just because they believe in the cause, why is it difficult to believe that someone with an annual income of £12 billion might give 0.1% of their income, ie £12 million (that’s the £36 million over three years), for the same reason?
So you're naïve enough to be saying that the 2 big donors won't have "special" access?
ReplyDeleteLol
So you're naïve enough to be saying that the 2 big donors won't have "special" access?
DeleteI certainly expect they will get invited to the Christmas Party, is that what you mean?
(But I don’t see why that is incompatible with the idea that they donated because they think that a Reform government would be good for the country.)
Delete"So you're naïve enough to be saying that the 2 big donors won't have "special" access?
DeleteI certainly expect they will get invited to the Christmas Party, is that what you mean?"
As I posted earlier under transparency - let's see the Whatsapp chats between Reform and these doners over the next couple of years
Surely you're in favour?
After all, what could they possibly have to hide?
(But I don’t see why that is incompatible with the idea that they donated because they think that a Reform government would be good for the country.)
DeleteNo it's not incompatible
But given that Reform is a pro-crypto party and these 2 guys made their billions in crypto could there be more personal reasons for donating to Farage?
But that's probably me just being cynical and suspicious
As I posted earlier under transparency - let's see the Whatsapp chats between Reform and these doners over the next couple of years
DeleteSurely you're in favour?
I expect they will be leaked to the press and we will find out if they are newsworthy, yes. That’s what usually happens with these things, and that is good.
But I don’t know what you expect to find. Lots of messages where the donors say, ‘Great speech Nigel, keep sticking it to the establishment, we really need to get control over the border, protect our culture and sack the whole civil service’ is my guess.
(It has been noticed that one of the Reform Party’s most developed policy plans is what to do about cryptocurrency and that it’s one that these donors would generally be expected to be in favour of… but that’s all public knowledge, just like how the trade unions are basically dictating Labour’s employment policies.)
But given that Reform is a pro-crypto party and these 2 guys made their billions in crypto could there be more personal reasons for donating to Farage?
DeleteHow is that suspicious? That’s like saying it would be ‘suspicious’ if I donated to a political party which was pro-the area I work in, or which promised to reduce taxes on me. That’s kind of the opposite of suspicious, it’s exactly what you would expect me to do!
Like, surely you would expect someone who works in, say, film, to donate to a party which said ‘we will give massive subsidies to the British film industry’?
Naive BS as usual
DeleteAsk the public if they think there's no personal agenda here with the donors.
But I'm sure the market research companies are already doing this - wonder what they'll find?
Any bets?
Ask the public if they think there's no personal agenda here with the donors.
DeleteThe public will be asked exactly that when they come to vote, and they will answer (or at least, they will answer whether they think if such an agenda exists it outweighs other factors such as whether they trust Reform more than the other parties on issues like immigration).
But I'm sure the market research companies are already doing this - wonder what they'll find?
Any bets?
You mean how will voting intention polls move over the next week or so? I'm guessing no massive changes until the budget, at which point I expect Labour's poll ratings to drop 4-5 points, with the Conservatives picking up most of it, putting Labour in solid third place with Reform and the Conservatives vying for first and within the margin of error of each other.
Some info for you to ignore
DeleteMore than four in five Britons believing wealthy individuals use political donations to influence government in their own interests.
We all know money talks in politics, but rarely has it spoken quite so obscenely.
Observer
Duncan Hames, director of policy and programmes at campaigning charity Transparency International UK, said: "This is a watershed moment, with two billionaires pledging £72m to one political party in less than 48 hours.
"This situation is now completely out of control, and makes an irrefutable case for government to bring forward an annual cap on political donations, and fast."
Concerns are heightened by perceptions that Reform UK is being "bought" by the ultra-rich, potentially damaging its image as a party of ordinary citizens.
City AM / Freshwater Strategy
62% of people believe the allegations against Reform figures show there is a real problem with the party.
41% say it would make them less likely to back Reform.
Opinium
56% believe large political donations give wealthy individuals too much influence over politics.
Reform is now seen as the most donor-influenced party (53%), edging out the Conservatives (50%) and Labour (49%
47% of Reform's own voters support a cap.
"This situation is now completely out of control, and makes an irrefutable case for government to bring forward an annual cap on political donations, and fast."
Delete62% of people believe the allegations against Reform figures show there is a real problem with the party
What I don't understand is how these two can go together. If 62% of people think that the donations show there is a problem with Reform, then why is there any need for a donation cap?
Surely, if parties notice that taking large donations leads to people thinking there is a problem with the party (and therefore being less likely too vote for them), they will response in their own self-interest by stopping taking large donations, without any need for a cap?
And if they don't, then presumably people will rationally respond by not voting for them, meaning that they will be less likely to form the next government -- so any donor who had made donations in the hopes of gaining influence over the government will be disappointed?
I just don't see why the normal mechanisms of democratic accountability, ie, voters deciding not to vote for parties they think are in hock to special interests (whether that's rich individuals or the trades unions) are sufficient to remedy the problem without any needs for legislated 'caps'.
"I just don't see ..."
DeleteYou said it not me
You refuse to accept that political spending influences voting patterns (I've provided several peer review research articles evidencing this and you've failed to provide any evidence to the contrary - in spite of repeated requests)
Do you really think that the 2 mega donors believe their money WON'T affect voting behaviour? If so, why on earth have they donate if it won't make any difference?
Given that £70+ million spent on Reform's next election is big bucks the concern (genuine or otherwise) amongst voters (we don't know how many yet as the market research into these 2 donations hasn't yet taken place) is that Reform is "buying" the next election with this money and that's not "fair"
"Normal mechanisms" can only apply at the next election by which time - if the election can be bought - it will be too late
As usual your logic is faulty
I note with interest your lack of response to my comments about the potential drawbacks to Reform of accepting these 2 donations
DeleteFirst, they've given their opposing parties an ideal way to drum up support for a donations cap - which will impact more on Reform than the others. Self inflicted shot in the foot for Farage
Second, it blows apart Farage's carefully constructed image as one of the lads down the local and his image as a persecuted underdog wanting to change the system
Reform needs to get a large number of people to switch political allegiance if they are to have any chance of winning the next election. I strongly suspect some of those who might otherwise have switched at the next election will now longer do so - "Farage is just the same as all the others"
Perception is everything
Do you really think that the 2 mega donors believe their money WON'T affect voting behaviour? If so, why on earth have they donate if it won't make any difference?
DeleteI clearly don't have any insight into their thought processes. But I can speculate that it might go something like: running a political party is expensive. You have to pay for office space, leaflets, vetting of candidates, private polling, etc etc etc. If Reform have no income, then they might well go bust before the next election. I think that a Reform government would be good for the country, and obviously that can't happen if they go bust before the next election. So I will give them money to cover their costs so that they don't go bust before the next election, so that people can have the option to vote for them, so that they can get into government and improve the country.
That may or may not be what they are actually thinking, but it seems like a plausible thing for them to think -- and if you swap out 'Reform' for 'the Liberal Democrats' or 'the Greens' or even 'the Conservatives' would work for any political party (except Labour, who have a guaranteed income stream from the trades unions).
Given that £70+ million spent on Reform's next election is big bucks
It's not really ''big bucks'. In 2024 the Labour Party spent £59,479,000 and the Conservative Party spent £41,469,000. So Reform's £72 million over three years, at £24 million per year, is about half of either of those.
"Normal mechanisms" can only apply at the next election by which time - if the election can be bought - it will be too late
But the election can't be bought.
I note with interest your lack of response to my comments about the potential drawbacks to Reform of accepting these 2 donations
DeleteI didn't respond because -- as I thought was clear -- I think your points there are correct, and that accepting these donations might negatively impact people's willingness to vote for Reform. I didn't think that was controversial.
What I don't understand it why you think that that therefore means there should be a donation cap. Surely if accepting large donations negatively impacts people's willingness to vote for a political party, that in itself is a disincentive to parties to accept such donations, and therefore renders the idea of a cap redundant? Why bother to have a rule prohibiting people from doing something that it's in their own self-interest not to do?
Although...
they've given their opposing parties an ideal way to drum up support for a donations cap - which will impact more on Reform than the others
Surely it wouldn't impact on Reform more than the others? Surely it would impact on Labour most of all, by limiting the amount that the trades unions could donate to the Labour party -- their main source of funding?
"But the election can't be bought."
DeleteThen why have 2 people donated £70+ million?
According to you they've wasted their money as Reform won't win
Then why have 2 people donated £70+ million?
DeleteAs I said above -- it could be because they think that a Reform government would be good for the country, and therefore want to ensure that Reform doesn't go bust before it has a chance to form a government after the next election.
According to you they've wasted their money as Reform won't win
I didn't say Reform wouldn't win. Reform might well win, and if they do it will be because people think that they are the best party (out of the available options) to address the concerns they have about the state of the nation, and so vote for them -- not because the election was 'bought'.
Just like in 2024 Labour didn't 'buy' the election (even though they spent by far the most money) -- they were elected because people were fed up of the Conservatives, and because the Conservatives had thoroughly lost their reputation for competence.
I'd give Reform winning about a 30% chance, at the moment.
I think my current guess for after the next election would be something like:
Delete15% straight-up Reform majority
15% Reform / Conservative coalition, Reform largest party
10% straight-up Conservative majority
20% Reform/Conservative coalition, Conservative largest party
40% left-wing coalition of chaos
Not exactly a rosy picture, but still all to play for.
"Reform's £72 million over three years, at £24 million per year,"
DeleteM understanding is that this has been paid as a lump sum upfront
"I think my current guess for after the next election would be something like:
Delete15% straight-up Reform majority
15% Reform / Conservative coalition, Reform largest party
10% straight-up Conservative majority
20% Reform/Conservative coalition, Conservative largest party
40% left-wing coalition of chaos
Not exactly a rosy picture, but still all to play for."
I suspect it will be far more unpredictable - and divisive
I suspect the majority of support for Reform will come from parts of England - further highlighting the split with Scotland and to a lesser extent Wales where Reform support is far less and more widely distributed geographically
In Scotland a steady 50% support independence and aren't going to vote Reform
That means Reform have to grab a large chunk of Labour/Tory voters who are pro-union to win any seats in a UK election
At present the Scottish Labour/Tory leaderships are virtually invisible so the £70+ million war chest gives Reform an opportunity to advertise and raise its profile here
However, we've seen a lot of tactical voting here in the past (against the SNP) so it's possible Labour/Tory will adopt the same stance to try to stop Reform in any winnable seats
M understanding is that this has been paid as a lump sum upfront
DeleteIt has, but only because the government has floated plans to possibly put a donation cap in at some point in the next three years. To avoid that it was given in a lump sum before such a cap could come in, rather than spread out, but it’s meant to cover the three years until the next general election.
I suspect the majority of support for Reform will come from parts of England - further highlighting the split with Scotland and to a lesser extent Wales where Reform support is far less and more widely distributed geographically
DeleteReform’s support will be geographically limited, but not because of any magic properties of the Scottish or Welsh borders — it’ll do well in ex-industrial rural areas in England, Scotland and Wales, and badly in cities in all three.
The question no one can answer is how effective tactical voting will be. We’ve already seen anti-Reform tactical voting be very effective in by-elections; will that replicate in a general election? And on the other side, how willing will Reform and Conservative voters be to hold their noses and vote for the other one where that makes most electoral sense?
It will be messy — that’s why I have the changes of a coalition of some kind higher than any single-party government.
Hopefully this period is an aberration and we can get back to single-party governments reasonably quickly; if i had to nail on one prediction it would be that we end up with a Conservative/Reform coalition of some kind, with the two parties’ support sufficiently geographically distinct that out makes sense for them to fight the next couple of elections as a kind of CDU/CSU alliance, before finally formally merging in ten or fifteen years, basically as happened with the Liberal Unionists.
"it’ll do well in ex-industrial rural areas in England, Scotland and Wales,"
DeleteIn 2024 Reform actually did better in the Tory leaning rural areas and worse in the old industrial areas in the central belt
A Tory/Reform coalition would be great news for the Indy supporters given the likely policies they'd pursue
A Tory/Reform coalition would be great news for the Indy supporters given the likely policies they'd pursue
DeleteWell, they are likely to prioritise England (and, indeed, particular bits of England) in their policies, that's true. But honestly, His Majesty's Government could buy every single person in Scotland a Lamborghini and the nationalists woudl complain they they weren't the right colour, so given they'll never be pleased there's really no point in trying.
I note, though, that the leader of the nationalists has decided to pal around with the leader of a party which likes to try to assassinate British Prime Ministers. Should Mr Burnham be worried?
"Voters turn against Nigel Farage in record numbers as Reform UK funding storm grows, new poll reveals
DeleteThe Reform UK leader is now as unpopular as Sir Keir Starmer was just before he resigned, according to the YouGov poll"
No surprise there then
"A Tory/Reform coalition would be great news for the Indy supporters given the likely policies they'd pursue"
DeleteThe serious point here is that 3 nations want to go in different directions from England and your scenario of a Tory/Reform govt in Westminster would make that even more likely
ant speak for Wales and NI but unless you live in Scotland it's difficult to appreciate how different it is from England - English MPs and the English dominated media have little appreciation of this.. I was born & bred in England and spent the first half of my life there. When I return to visit friends and family I don't recognise the country any more - and that's nothing to do with immigration. It's to do with how the native Brits have changed. Attitudes behaviours, expectations, social norms ....
Independence has a steady but increasing 50% support (higher amongst the younger voters) and the English media view that's the agenda is pushed by a small minority of loony nationalists is way off the mark
Westminster MPs have been fixated first by Brexit and then by migration and don't appear to realise that the Union is very close to fragmenting.
Closest analogy (appropriate to Farage) is of a couple whose relationship is close to toxic but the male partner is oblivious and focussed on himself - happy to keep going down the pub with mates, watch the footie on TV .... you get the scenario
It's then a matter of time before something snaps
Burnham obviously hopes that his "devolution" approach will help but I suspect it's too little too late for the Union.
No surprise there then
DeleteSo you would agree that this shows there is no need for any cap on political donations? We can just make sure that all donations are properly reported, and then let voters make up their own minds.
The serious point here is that 3 nations want to go in different directions from England and your scenario of a Tory/Reform govt in Westminster would make that even more likely
DeleteThey don't 'want to go in different directions' so much as they want free stuff provided by English taxpayers, and English taxpayers don't want their money spent on bungs. It's that simple, when you get down to it.
What's hilarious is that if they ever did achieve independence, the living standards in an independent Scotland or especially Wales would drop through the floor as they found themselves with worthless currencies, trying to borrow on the bond markets at ruinous rates, their goods having to clear customs to get into England, their banks no longer with access the to Bank of England last-resort lending so vulnerable to runs and liquidity crises, and trying to extract higher and higher tax rates from an ever-shrinking base as anyone with an ounce of talent flees to England at the same time as the tax policies crush economic growth.
It would be funny to watch, and if I didn't care so much about my home country of Britain I would be all in favour just so I could laugh at the utter squalor they would find themselves in.
Westminster MPs have been fixated first by Brexit and then by migration and don't appear to realise that the Union is very close to fragmenting
Now that is true. In fact the only problem with it is that it doesn't go far enough. The rot didn't start with 'Brexit', the Union has been neglected since the nineties, and arguably before. Governments of both kinds have been content to allow the nationalist narratives to run riot, giving in to every in the hopes that then they don't have to think about them.
This has obviously backfired, and they need to switch to what they should have been doing all along: setting out why people should be proud of the Union, and proud of Britain and British history and Britain's place in the world.
It's then a matter of time before something snaps
At least in the case of Scotland, there will never be a vote for independence until the SNP can give an acceptable answer tot he question of what currency an independent Scotland will use, and there is no such answer:
1. A Sterling currency union would be best for Scotland but would be unacceptable to England so is not on the table
2. Using Sterling outside a currency union would put them at the mercy of monetary policy managed by a neighbour that would be at best indifferent and at worst actively hostile to Scottish circumstances, so not really acceptable
3. Using the Euro might be a long-term aim but can't happen immediately as they would have to meet the qualifications (and countries like France and Spain would put as many obstacles as they could in Scotland's way to avoid giving hope to their own nationalist movements)
4. A new, independent Scottish currency would be initially worthless so I can't see that being acceptable to Scottish voters either.
This is probably a short term reaction to the adverse media coverage. Once the £70 million is spent I suspect we'll see a bounce back in Reform support - votes have been paid for by this money
DeleteI repeat my oft-repeated comment
There's independent research evidence that political advertising boosts voter support - spend more money and you get more votes
You've failed to provide any evidence that this DOESN'T happen
Once the £70 million is spent I suspect we'll see a bounce back in Reform support
DeleteMaybe, maybe not. Voters are capable of making up their own minds. They are not robots who can be programmed by whoever spends most on advertising; they are free individuals who can weigh up the various factors and choose who to vote for based on their own concerns.
where's your evidence?
Deletewhere's your evidence?
DeleteYou want evidence for the claim that voters are capable of making up their own minds?
Evidence: I am a voter. I am capable of making up my own mind.
Oh dear, not these red herrings again
DeleteOne thing we can agree on, an Indy Scotland will have some major economic challenges to manage – as indeed would rUK. Let’s remember that Scotland based on recent OECD data, ranks 16th in GDP per capita amongst OECD countries, placing it slightly ahead of the UK (17th)
And I’m sure I remember you posting that “some things are more important than GDP” – taking back control seems to spring to mind. No more Brexit votes, HS2 embarrassments, migrant crossings distractions …..
Let’s take a few of the herrings in turn
“until the SNP can give an acceptable answer tot he question of what currency an independent Scotland will use”
That’s been answered
Scotland will continue to use sterling
And no, the rUK can’t stop Scotland from doing that
No BoE as lender of last resort
Doesn’t matter. A government is the ultimate backstop for failing banks as we saw in 2008 when the govt nationalised Northern Rock and directly bailed out several major banks that were effectively bankrupt (what a success for capitalism they were). An Indy Scottish govt can do the same
No input into BoE monetary policy
Exactly the same as now then! No difference there
And something that seems to escape those south of the border
Once an Indy vote has happened it’s a whole new political ball game in Scotland
The SNP will splinter into its internal factions. It’s only the common cause for independence that’s holding very diverse groups together under the SNP banner. My guess is that there will be at least two seperate parties emerging from the wreckage – one mostly liberal (and perhaps merging with the Scottish Libdems) and one more conservative (but not allying with the Tories).
Scottish Labour & Tory will have to reinvent themselves after the deed is done. They’ll no longer be able simply to parrot the policies touted by their respective UK head offices. It will be interested to see what they really think of an Indy Scotland
Reform will head back south.
A new Scottish Govt will be elected to negotiate separation terms including: Scotland’s share of the national debt (if any), annual rent on Faslane; electricity prices for exports to England ….
And you thought Brexit negotiations were tough!
Evidence
Delete"I can make up my own mind"
Is that really the best you can come up with?
"Must
"Must try harders
No more Brexit votes, HS2 embarrassments, migrant crossings distractions
ReplyDeleteIndeed.
Just ferries that can’t sail and have painted-on windows, school pupils who can neither read nor add up, and a deathtrap road up the coast that is still a single carriageway after, what, a quarter of a century?
An Indy Scottish govt can do the same
With what money? Remember that the Republic of Ireland couldn’t afford to bail out its banks and had to borrow the money from Britain. Do you think that England would lend ungrateful Scots a penny to save their banks? Not a chance. They would have to beg from the IMF.
Scotland will continue to use sterling
Just like third-world countries use the US dollar. Appropriate for a brand new third-world country.
Worth remembering that the whole reason the Act of Union came about was because the Scots bankrupted their country with their boneheaded Panamanian misadventure, and so had to go begging to England to bail them out of their failure.
DeleteHow long before a newly independent Scotland was in the same position again? Five years? Ten at the outside?
Oh dear
DeleteSame BS repeated from reading the tabloids
No analysis no evidence just the same BS
Here's a question
How many countries have gained independence and regretted it?
As I say, if I didn’t love Britain so much I would love to see Scotland become independent just to watch the suffering and, when they begged for help, say, ‘No.’
DeleteBut here’s what I don’t understand about the nationalists. Forget about money. Together, the people of Britain — Scots and English and, indeed, Irish — achieved great things in the British Empire, far far greater than any of them could have achieved alone. Why on Earth would you want to cut yourself off from that glorious history?
Same BS repeated from reading the tabloids
DeleteYeah, the tabloids round here are full of the Darién scheme. A new article on it every other day, two on Sundays.
Darien?
DeleteYou're average native English would just assume this is someone's first name
Britain achieved great things.
DeleteAbsolutely
But one of the things driving independence is those days are long gone and the future that England wants is different to what the other 3 nations want
You're average native English would just assume this is someone's first name
DeleteNice racism there.
But one of the things driving independence is those days are long gone and the future that England wants is different to what the other 3 nations want
DeleteBut what’s the point of a future if to get there you have to cut yourself off from your past?
Which past?
DeleteThe one where Scotland is dominated by an English agenda and effectively treated as a colony?
Not racist a statement of fact
DeleteIt's estimated that less than 5% of English would have heard of this
It's estimated that less than 5% of English would have heard of this
DeleteEstimated by whom and on what evidence?
(And what's their estimate for how many Scots have heard of it?)
DeleteThe one where Scotland is dominated by an English agenda and effectively treated as a colony?
ReplyDeleteThere’s no such past. Scotland was a film and equal partner in the Empire, and deserves as much credit for its successes and glories as England does. The imperial agenda was always as much a Scottish agenda as it was an English one.
What on earth has that to do with today?
DeleteUntil devolution Scotland was run by Whitehall and largely by people and politicians with no real interest - and sometimes no real knowledge - in the country - just like an overseas colony.
When I moved to Scotland from England I was shocked at the state of infrastructure in particular - roads, housing, schools, hospitals - in spite of all the oil money flowing into Treasury coffers.
That's why Scotland wants to take back control
What on earth has that to do with today?
DeleteIt’s got nothing to do with today. It’s about the glorious past that breaking away from Britain would be cutting yourself off from; as above, I don’t understand why anyone lucky enough to be born with a connection to such a past would want to sever that.
Until devolution Scotland was run by Whitehall and largely by people and politicians with no real interest - and sometimes no real knowledge - in the country - just like an overseas colony.
You could say the same about Aberdeen being run by Edinburgh largely by people and politicians with no real interest in it. Or the Shetlands.
And you could say the same about Cornwall run from London.
And it goes triple for Donegal being run from Dublin, or Marseilles from Paris.
It’s just a fact of governance that everyone far from the centre complains about how they are misunderstood and neglected. It may even be true. But moving government from London to Edinburgh won’t help that.
(It also makes it massively ironic that the SNP’s policy is to rejoin the European Union: if your reason for wanting independence is that London is too far away a place to be governed from, why would you want to be governed from the even-more-distant Brussels?)
When I moved to Scotland from England I was shocked at the state of infrastructure in particular - roads, housing, schools, hospitals - in spite of all the oil money flowing into Treasury coffers.
That's why Scotland wants to take back control
But all those areas of spending are devolved, and public spending per capita in higher in Scotland than England. And we know that an independent Scotland would have less money to spend than it does now. The minute Scotland becomes independent and all funding from the British Treasury ceases, Scottish pensioners start starving, let alone there being no money for roads, schools, hospitals or housing.
So that’s a stupid reason to want independence, isn’t it?
as usual you're totally muddled and confused
Delete1. "But moving government from London to Edinburgh won’t help that."
But it has!
In the 30 years since devolution there's been a tremendous difference.
Within the limits of devolution decisions about Scotland are now taken by Scotland.
The difference that's made is one of the factors pushing independence. People are effectively arguing - "look what a difference devolution's made. Think about how much more we could achieve with full independence"
2. "When I moved to Scotland from England I was shocked at the state of infrastructure in particular - roads, housing, schools, hospitals - in spite of all the oil money flowing into Treasury coffers.
That's why Scotland wants to take back control
But all those areas of spending are devolved"
Again you're missing the point. Spending WASN'T devolved at the time I'm talking about. Scotland was run - badly - from Whitehall. Since devolution there's been a tremendous difference made as most Scots know
3. "Scottish pensioners start starving, let alone there being no money for roads, schools, hospitals or housing."
Your usual BS
Show me the source for the doomsday scenario if you can
As I posted earlier (but you didn't reply) show me a country that's gained its independence and then gone back asking to join up again
Within the limits of devolution decisions about Scotland are now taken by Scotland.
DeleteAnd is Scotland better governed as a consequence? Are the education results better than England's? Have the educations results got better or worse since devolution? Are the roads better? Do the ferries sail, or do they sit in bankrupt dockyards with painted-on windows? Is the health service more efficient? Is, in fact, anything better at all except for some blatant bungs to the middle class like (highly limited) free university places, free prescriptions, and useless 'baby boxes'?
Show me the source for the doomsday scenario if you can
Even the SNP admit that their sums only add up (to the extent they do, they're mostly fantasy anyway) if they assume that the British government will continue paying for the pensions of people living in an independent Scotland: https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/snp-minister-claims-uk-government-28180564
Which obviously the British government would not do (and if it did, in a moment of stupidity, agree to pay, at the next election it would swiftly be replaced by a government which stopped the payments).
So with what money would the Scottish government pay pensions, given that currently all the actual income an independent Scotland would receive is accounted for by other things and an independent Scotland would have no credit history and so would face high risk premiums on its debt interest?
Anyway we seem to have drifted from the point which was: 'Forget about money. Together, the people of Britain — Scots and English and, indeed, Irish — achieved great things in the British Empire, far far greater than any of them could have achieved alone. Why on Earth would you want to cut yourself off from that glorious history?'
I still haven't managed to get an aswer to that.
As usual your thinking is muddled.
DeleteIt's not about where decisions are taken it's about whether those decisions match the priorities and aspirations and values of the people of Scotland
Decisions taken by an England dominated parliament - Brexit the obvious example - aren't what the people of Scotland want. That's why independence is increasingly favoured
It's not about where decisions are taken it's about whether those decisions match the priorities and aspirations and values of the people of Scotland
DeleteYou write like ‘people of Scotland’ aren’t some big homogeneous blob who all share the same priorities and aspirations and values. They clearly aren’t, or Reform wouldn’t be the joint second-biggest party in the Scottish Assembly.
And likewise neither are the people of England a homogeneous blob which ‘dominate’ Parliament.
The interests of the people of Aberdeen are no more similar to the people of Edinburgh than they are to people of Birmingham, Truro or London. The interests of the fishing industry in Dundee are more like the interests of Grimsby than they are like the interests of Glasgow.
(This is, indeed, probably why Scottish independence is most popular in the central belt of Scotland and gets less as you get farther away — because they realise that an independent Scotland will not represent ‘Scottish values and aspirations’ so much as it will represent the values and aspirations of the Edinburgh-Glasgow corridor, which are just as far removed from the values and the aspirations of the north-east or the islands as are the values and aspirations of Oxford and Cambridge.
Brexit the obvious example
DeleteIn the 2016 referendum, in Scotland, 38% of votes were to leave the European Union. Not a majority, but enough to show that the Scottish electorate was not entirely of one mind on the issue, and not massively different from the 50/50 split in Britain as a whole.
The way you write you’d think that the voter in Scotland was 80/20 to remain.
(And still no one has explained why, if the objection to the union is that London is too far away to be governed from, the nationalists are so keen to be governed from Brussels! Why, if an English-dominated Parliament doesn’t put the interests of Scotland first, would a parliament dominated by the French and Germans be more likely to?)
Oh dear more confusion
DeleteDistance is not the issue as I've explained before it's about shared attitudes and common goals.
Maybe Scotland has more in common these days with the likes of France and Germany than England
A majority of Scotland wanted to stay in the EU
A majority of England didn't
Brexit is just one example there are plenty more as I've pointed out before
My puzzlement is that if Scotland wants independence why are you opposed
DeleteDistance is not the issue as I've explained before it's about shared attitudes and common goals.
DeleteAnd as I’ve explained, Dundee has more in common with Grimsby than Glasgow. There’s no magic ‘Scottish essence’ that people on one side if Hadrian’s Wall pick up from the soil that makes them have different values and aspirations from those loving farther south.
My puzzlement is that if Scotland wants independence why are you opposed
Because I love Britain and I don’t want to see it torn apart.
A majority of Scotland wanted to stay in the EU
DeleteA majority of England didn't
In Scotland the vote was 38% leave, 62% remain.
In England it was 54% leave, 46% remain.
So a difference of 16%.
So a difference, yes — Scotland was definitely more pro-remain.
But not a massive difference. Not like it was, say, 60/40 in England versus 20/80 in Scotland, which is the impression you give when you write as if those living in Scotland and those living in England are different species, alien to one another.
But even if there were such differences, what would it matter?
DeleteMy brothers and sisters and I all have different values, aspirations, attitudes and goals. But we are still family and we would never dream of renouncing that, or disowning our common parents.
Everyone British, whether they loved in Scotland, England, Wales or Ireland, is my national brother or sister. I oppose Scottish nationalism for the same reason that I would oppose a brother or sister estranging themselves from my family. It would break my heart. It would be like losing a limb. I don’t understand why anyone would want to do it.
" I don’t understand why anyone would want to do it."
DeleteBut if they do what right have you to stop them?
A scenario
A couple where one is bigger, stronger, dominant and sets the agenda for what the couple do, where they live, where they go on holiday ....
You get the idea
The other has tried to explain they want to do different things, live elsewhere, have a different holiday ... but has given up and has made their mind up that they want to leave.
Does the first person have the right to stop them?
"But not a massive difference."
DeleteMaybe yes mayae do.
But the difference was enough to have major consequences
Scotland gets dragged out of the EU with major consequences economically
In England the majority get what they want
In Scotland they don't
And you STILL don't understand why Scotland wants independence?
Then you never will
A couple where one is bigger, stronger, dominant and sets the agenda for what the couple do, where they live, where they go on holiday ....
DeleteYou get the idea
But that’s not the situation with Britain.
In England the majority get what they want
In Scotland they don't
38% of people in Scotland got what they wanted.
But 60% of the votes in Greater London were for Remain, too. And if you go down to a greater granularity then there will always be places where the local majority was against the eventual result.
Here’s a good question for you. If there is another referendum on Scottish independence, and of the result is for independence, but if a majority of votes in, say, Aberdeenshire were against independence, then would you support the right of Aberdonians to have an referendum on leaving Scotland and joining back up with the rest of Britain? If not, why not? Surely the logic of your position — which seems to be that any sub-unit in which a local majority disagrees with the decision of the majority of the whole should declare independence — is that under those circumstances the government of independent Scotland would have no right to ‘hold’ Aberdeenshire against the will of its residents?
As I said, you'll never understand
DeleteIt's nothing to do with a sub unit
DeleteScotland is a country in its own right - legally historically and culturally
Why deny it the right to full self determination?
Scotland certainly was a country. But it didn’t amount to anything until it united with England to form Great Britain, and then together they became the greatest superpower the world had ever seen, a shared triumph which neither could have achieved alone.
DeleteThat’s a glorious history. Why worries anyone who is heir to that want to cut themselves off from it?
You’re right, I don’t understand. I really don’t.
By the way, could you answer the question? Would an independent Scotland grant and respect a referendum on Aberdonian independence? If not, why not — wouldn’t it be hypocritical to support breaking apart one country, Britain, but not another country, Scotland?
DeleteNo Scotland IS a country
DeleteAs I keep repeating England and Scotland have reached a point in their (short) shared history where they wish to go in different economic and social directions.
Simply say - good luck to both in the next stage of their history. You take the high road and I'll tak the low road ...
No Scotland IS a country
DeleteNo, it isn’t. It’s a part of a country, Britain. When, in 2014, there was a vote, the question was: ‘should Scotland become an independent country?’ The answer was a resounding ‘no’, so it did not become a country and remains not a country to this day, in accordance with the result of that vote.
As I keep repeating England and Scotland have reached a point in their (short) shared history where they wish to go in different economic and social directions.
But that’s just not true. If that was true then the result of the vote in 2014 would have been ‘yes’, not ‘no’.
Now of course maybe, after a reasonable amount of time, say thirty or forty years, there could be another vote. But you can’t have a vote like that and then, if you didn’t like the result, a could of years later start asking for another vote. And then if that one doesn’t go your way stay asking for another one a couple of years after that, and then again, and again, and again, until you get the result you want and then suddenly declare that was the last one, no more votes, that one settles the question.
(What Scotland is, is a kingdom. But not all kingdoms are independent countries.)
DeleteBy the way, you still haven’t answered the question: would an independent Scotland allow and respect a referendum on Aberdonian independence and if not, why not? What non-hypocritical reason could they give for refusing the right of Aberdeenshire to decide its own destiny?
DeleteNo Scotland IS a country
DeleteNo, it isn’t. It’s a part of a country, Britain. When, in 2014, there was a vote, the question was: ‘should Scotland become an independent country?’ The answer was a resounding ‘no’, so it did not become a country and remains not a country to this day, in accordance with the result of that vote.”
Oh dear
I'm minded of the phrase “ignorance is bliss”
You must be one of the most blissful people on the planet
From the UK Parliament website:
“Scotland is a country in United Kingdom.”
But then you know better than Parliament don't you?
You need to understand grammar better
Scotland was NOT voting on whether to become a country or not
It was voting on whether the COUNTRY of Scotland should become independent
BTW better swot up on the difference between a country a nation and a state
DeleteIt was voting on whether the COUNTRY of Scotland should become independent
DeleteWhat’s a ‘non-independent country’? That makes no sense (and it doesn’t make any more sense just because it’s on a government web-site; HM government does and says lots of things that don’t make sense).
A country is a sovereign state. Scotland is not a sovereign state so it’s not a country.
But please can you stop nit-picking words and answer the substantial question: would an independent Scotland allow and respect a referendum on Aberdonian independence and if not, why not?
"As I keep repeating England and Scotland have reached a point in their (short) shared history where they wish to go in different economic and social directions."
DeleteYou're in denial again and in cloud cuckoo land if you think the peoplr of Scotland have the same priorities and views as those in England
"substantial question" !!!
DeleteYou're in your own little world aren't you?
Add it to the very long list of my "substantial" questions you can't answer
"substantial question" !!!
DeleteYou're in your own little world aren't you?
Add it to the very long list of my "substantial" questions you can't answer
You're in denial again and in cloud cuckoo land if you think the peoplr of Scotland have the same priorities and views as those in England
Delete‘The people of Scotland’ don’t even have the same priorities and views as each other. Priorities and views in Aberdeen are different from the Orkneys, are different from Glasgow and Edinburgh, are different again from Skye and Shetland and Dundee.
Just like people in London have different views and priorities to people in Grimsby, Exeter, Oxford, Berwick and Thanet.
And the voted and priorities of those places in Scotland and the places in England? They overlap.
There is no magical Scottish essence that people pick up from the soil that makes them have different views and priorities from people south of the border.
(What there is, Is different circumstances — for example, Scotland has a much lower proportion of immigrants, and that leads to more pro-immigrant views; not because the people are any different, but because the circumstances are, and if suddenly Scotland’s immigrant proportion were to expand to match England’s you would soon see a similar shift in views of immigration to match England’s too)
I will assume your refusal to answer means that you do not think an independent Scotland would allow a referendum on Aberdonian independence. So then why should Britain allow a referendum on Scottish independence, if Scotland wouldn’t allow one for Aberdeen?
Clueless
DeleteClueless
DeleteNo answers, then.
I've already given the answer
DeleteYou're clueless about these issues and worse, you're clueless that you're clueless
I've already given the answer
DeleteMaybe you think you have implicitly, but could you be explicit?
Would an independent Scotland allow and respect a referendum on Aberdonian independence? Yes or no?