Two swallows?

It's a truism that one swallow doesn't make a summer, so perhaps one fantastic election result doesn't constitute a revival.  But two?

At the beginning of May we Liberal Democrats exceeded our most optimistic  expectations by gaining over 700 Council seats.

Then last week in the the elections for the European Parliament we increased our number of MEPs from a solitary one to 16 on an encouraging 20.3% of the vote.  Double figures again at last.  Our wildest expectations  were for ten seats.

Of course most people look at the headline result of the EU election and the winner's rosette goes to Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party, who, won 29 seats and have become  the largest single party in the EU parliament.  What an achievement.  And all only 45 days after the creation of the party?  From where came the organisation?  And the money?

By contrast the Tiggers, or Change UK, who have now been around for several months, didn't win a single seat and obtained  only a modest total vote.

However, if we go on to analyse the results more closely we find that the Brexit victory is not all that amazing.  They didn't come from nothing but are really the now disgraced Ukip  wearing another hat, so their result has to be compared with Ukip's 2014 result when they won 24 seats with 27% of the vote.  29 seas with 32% is an improvement, but better described as "Holding your own +."

And then, of course we can summate the seats and votes of the unequivocally pro- Remain parties .  For England these are the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Change UK.  Between us we won  23 seats (LDs 16, Greens seven) .  If we than add the Scottish Nationalists' three seat and the one Alliance  seat from Northern Ireland we achieve a Remain total of  27.  Still behind Brexit, but the number-crunchers tell us, with a total of 40% of the votes, compared with 35% for  Brexit.  It's a bit like Alice in Wonderland: both have won and both receive prizes.

I get the impression that in England the pro and anti Brexit votes were pretty well neck and neck, but there were majorities for Remain in all all three of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.  The Wales result in interesting because that reverses their  position in the 2016 Referendum.

Of course all of this is a combination of fact and speculation of the 37% who turned out to vote.  There is no guarantee, or even likelihood, that the next  37%, who didn't turn out for this election but are likely to do so in a People's Vote or a General Election, will vote in the same proportions.

Nevertheless it's a fair bet that these "real votes" as opposed to opinion polls, confirm  the conclusion of the opinion polls,  that there is now a majority in the UK for Remain.

That does not mean that victory for Remain in a People's Vote is now assured.

Leave will fight dirty, Farage is a skilled campaigner (we shall not find out where his financial support comes from until it is to late), the press remains biassed and will not hesitate to further ignite the fury of the Leavers who feel betrayed and  who will not let the facts get in the way of their feelings.

But we Liberal Democrats have proved that campaigning boldly for Remain, rather than sitting on the fence, brings results. If Labour learn that lesson, and there are signs hat they are, then Summer could be just round the corner.